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At the Institute for Political Economy, Paul Craig Roberts analyzes where the war in Ukraine will go from here. He writes:
Update: Those promoting the ‘foreign agent law’ in Georgia could be barred from traveling to America, Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said
Clearly, Washington intends a color revolution in Georgia as a second front against Russia.
I have tried to provide accurate analysis of the conflict in Ukraine. This is not a simple task as there is little publicly available information about how the Kremlin sees the widening of the conflict. France has sent troops. The US Secretary of Defense said that eventually NATO troops will be deployed to Ukraine, and European governments are preparing for war with Russia in 4 or 5 years.
Putin’s original goals were the liberation of the Donbas region, and denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine. How denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine were to be accomplished without the conquest of Ukraine was never clear.
The appearance of long-range missiles, that is, missiles whose reach extends beyond the battlefield into Russia, resulted in statements from the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs that Russia would have to compensate for the missiles reach by taking more of Ukraine in order to create a buffer zone. As the missiles the West sends keep lengthening in range, the consequence is that the buffer zone keeps enlarging and the entirety of Ukraine will have to be conquered and occupied and a Russian-friendly government installed in Ukraine. Already there are reports of Ukrainian drone attacks on Tatarstan in central Russia one thousand kilometers from the front line in Ukraine. Clearly the conflict is not a limited military operation.
Whether Putin understands that his “limited military operation” is no longer practical is unclear.
The Ukrainian Army has been defeated. More mobilization will only result in a higher Ukrainian death toll. So where does the conflict go from here?
I suspect the Russian military will bypass Kharkov and leave it surrounded and cut off. The remains of the Ukrainian military is likely to reposition on the west bank of the Dnieper River. Russia, if the Kremlin ever becomes serious about the conflict, will take Odessa unless US/NATO occupy Odessa first.
The question is whether this would bring an end to the conflict or would Western Ukraine fill up with NATO forces in order to maintain a hostile regime toward Russia. If the latter, the conflict ceases to be between Ukraine and Russia and becomes one of the West and Russia. Putin would have rescued the Russian territories, but Ukraine would remain militarized. This time with US/NATO.
The Kremlin’s failure to act decisively in the beginning will have left Russia with a festering problem.
Washington will further stress Putin with attempted color revolution in Georgia, like Ukraine a former Russian province. A successful color revolution would allow Washington to open a second front against Russia.
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