About two months in, how is my Short-term bull-bear model performing? I couldn’t be happier. The bull-bear model has made almost 8.8% on the longs and lost only 6.4% on the shorts. If you started with $90,000 in capital and invested $10,000 in each of the long positions and sold short $10,000 of the three […]
“Meltdown? Absolutely baked into the cake as I write to you, and becoming more of a deep midterm concern for me as time passes,” wrote Dick Young in Intelligence Report back in July 2015. And here we are a short way into 2016 and the speculative NASDAQ index is down over 8%. As Dick notes, “In recent issues, my goal has been to work especially hard at providing you intelligence that will keep you safe and dividend-centric during what I consider the inevitable coming meltdown.”
Safe and dividend-centric—sort of has a ring to it, does it not? It does to me. Those words have been pounded into my head for all the years I’ve worked with my father-in-law, Dick Young, founder, and with my brother-in-law Matt Young, president and CEO of Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd. In addition to our family bond, the three of us studied, at different times, at our shared alma mater, Babson College. But it was Dick who studied charts (much to the dismay of his teachers, I’m guessing) as a student at Shaker Heights High School. As you can see, there’s a lot of history when Dick writes, “I have tweaked my original work on dividends and interest, along with my long-time interest in gold (I have held my original 1982 China Gold Pandas for decades) to produce what I call the ‘Maximizers’.”
The Maximizers is a diversified portfolio, a “Retirement Ark,” if you will, of dividend-paying and dividend-increasing (for 10-consecutive years or more) common stocks, high-grade bonds, and gold. A simple enough sounding strategy for sure, but a strategy that is difficult to follow, especially in times like these when legendary investor Jack Bogle would likely advise the twitching masses to “just don’t do something, stand there.”
And stand there should you, as Yoda might say. Because it is my belief that you might lose a couple battles here and there with a Maximizers styled approach, but you will win the war. An inside baseball look reveals that the speculative NASDAQ beat the Maximizers in 8 of 15 years this century, versus 7 outperformers for the Maximizers. A pitcher with a 7-and-8 Major League Baseball starting record would be banished to the bullpen. But despite a 7 and 8 record, the final results have been incredible over the complete 21st Century.
The Maximizers win by a long shot. At the same time, the Maximizers offer you the peace of mind and comfort you deserve. The maximum deviation between the best and worst year for the Maximizers is a tiny 10 percentage points. For the outgunned and outmanned NASDAQ, the deviation is an unsettling, if not breathtaking, 91 percentage points. And the bone-chilling NASDAQ record includes five down years, four of which were bruisers. No half-sensible retirement investor is going to sign on for that backbreaking volatility. Never forget Dick Young’s cardinal rule of portfolio crafting: Always analyze risk before worrying about potential returns.
I’ve been asked the question “What do you think of Bitcoin,” as much as any question I’ve received about my website www.yoursurvivalguy.com or my series on the S&P 500. I’ve been in the weeds studying bitcoin (the currency) and Bitcoin (blockchain tech) and I’ll tell you, I haven’t had that “Aha!” religious-like moment experienced by, […]
“Well I remember the mood of euphoria that gripped the stock market back in the holiday season of year-end 1965,” writes Dick Young in his September 1987 issue of Richard C. Young’s Intelligence Report. “I had just entered the investment business and was a broker at a Boston based member firm of the New Your Stock […]
“Well I remember the mood of euphoria that gripped the stock market back in the holiday season of year-end 1965,” writes Dick Young in his September 1987 issue of Richard C. Young’s Intelligence Report. “I had just entered the investment business and was a broker at a Boston based member firm of the New Your […]
With the exception of the large sums of money that I invested in zero-coupon treasuries (Benham Target Funds) in the 1980s and 1990s, I have never invested based on how much money I expected to make. I work to make money. And I save to keep every dime of the money I have worked a […]
One Man’s Opinion Let’s see if STBB is for you. You’re basically bullish on the stock market, and you have a nice chunk of cash handy that you hate to see withering away in your bank, earning squat. You are going out of the country on an extended business trip, and you have no time […]
There are 9 Dow stocks currently paying 3% or more. (See which stocks I’m talking about in my new “Dow Lab“) Not one of these top 2017 cash flow winners for shareholders is in the top 12 Dow stock price performers for the year. What we are looking at in 2017 is a “follow the leader” […]
Worrying about a Black Swan event can do serious damage to a portfolio. Jon Sindreu and Laurence Fletcher write at The Wall Street Journal: In the wake of the global financial crisis, fear of such “black-swan” events drove some investors into hedge funds that offered protection should markets plunge. But the swans have yet to […]
After meeting monthly strategy report deadlines since 1978, I have decided it’s time to switch gears. The name Intelligence Report will survive, but with no contribution from Richard C. Young. Instead, I am transitioning aggressively to full-time research on behalf of private clients of our family investment management firm, Richard C. Young & Co. Ltd. […]
A couple of years ago, after reading one of his investment articles, I reached out to Norb Vonnegut. We met in Newport and talked investments at my all-time favorite burger joint, Mission. Yesterday Norb hit the nail on the head about why Spotify is eschewing Wall Street for it’s IPO. It will basically be a […]