Pat Buchanan writes, “This jolting question is raised by Graham Allison and Dimitri Simes in the cover article of the National Interest.”
The authors believe “the odds are shortening on a military collision between the world’s largest nuclear powers.”
Pat writes, “Russia hard-liners are confident that should it come to war in Ukraine, Russia would have what Cold War strategists called ‘escalation dominance’.”
As of now, the Minsk II cease-fire of February seems to be holding. The Ukrainian army and pro-Russian rebels have both moved their heavy weapons back from the truce lines, though there have been clashes and casualties.
But as Ukraine’s crisis is unresolved, these questions remain:
Will the U.S. train the Ukrainian army and then greenlight an offensive to retake the rebel-held provinces? Would Russia intervene and rout that army? Would the Americans sit by if their Ukrainian trainees were defeated and more Ukrainian land was lost?
Or would we start up the escalator to a war with Russia that few Europeans, but some Americans and Russians, might welcome today?