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Can the Gaza Ceasefire Hold?

January 21, 2025 By Richard C. Young

By Peter Hermes Furian @ Shutterstock.com

A ceasefire has been signed between Israel and Hamas. At The Spectator, Jonathan Sacerdoti wonders how the agreement will hold up. He writes:

The ceasefire in Gaza, scheduled to begin this morning, has been anything but straightforward. As the agreement unfolds, many have rushed to declare who are the winners and who are the losers. Yet victory does not lie with those who made the most military gains or acted most morally — it leans, perversely, towards those ruthless enough to exploit suffering without moral restraint. In this grim theatre of war the truth is far bleaker, that among the civilized, there can only be losers.

After days of fraught negotiations, delays, and brinkmanship, the first steps of this tenuous agreement are now unfolding. The plan, as presented, is stark in its simplicity and devastating in its implications: Hamas will release a small number of abductees in stages in exchange for Israel freeing hundreds of convicted Palestinian terrorists from its prisons. Yet even as the first phase takes shape, the events of the past 24 hours have underscored just how fragile this deal is — and how easily it could collapse.

The agreement itself had already sparked fierce debate within Israel, but by early morning, the deal’s implementation was already in jeopardy. According to the terms, Hamas was to provide Israel with the list of hostages scheduled for release in each batch, 24 hours beforehand. When no such list arrived by the deadline, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened a late-night security meeting. Hours later, as dawn broke, Netanyahu instructed the IDF to delay the ceasefire until the list was received, a move reflecting both his skepticism about Hamas’ intentions and the precariousness of the arrangement.

It wasn’t until just before 9 a.m. UK time that Hamas finally submitted the names. Among them was British-Israeli Emily Damari, whose mother had campaigned relentlessly for her release. This last-minute submission, hours behind schedule, typifies the challenges of negotiating with Hamas, an organization that has repeatedly exploited its control over hostages to manipulate both timelines and Israeli public sentiment. For Netanyahu and his government, this delay was a grim reminder of past experiences, when Hamas failed to provide the agreed lists. This ultimately ended the previous agreement completely. Their decision to start this deal as they ended the last is therefore highly symbolic of the manipulation Hamas will doubtless undertake throughout the coming days.

By the time the ceasefire officially began at 11.15 a.m. local time, Hamas, had shown it was emboldened by the leverage it holds and uniformed terrorists paraded and drove in a convoy of white trucks through the Gaza Strip, with Palestinian civilians ululating and cheering them on. Each manipulation chips away at the already tenuous trust between the sides, raising questions about whether the full deal — structured in phases — can ever be fully implemented.

The stakes could not be higher. For the families of the abductees, the release of even a single name brings both hope and heartbreak. These are innocents taken during the October 7 attack, which left Israel reeling from its worst loss of life in decades. Over 470 days in captivity, these individuals have endured unimaginable suffering, and their families have lived in limbo, oscillating between despair and the faintest hope of reunion.

But the cost of their release is staggering. Among the Palestinian prisoners being freed are individuals convicted of some of the deadliest terror attacks in Israeli history. The list includes Ahmed Barghouti, serving 13 life sentences for orchestrating bombings that killed 12 Israelis, and members of the Silwan Cell, responsible for attacks that claimed dozens of lives. Each name carries a story of loss, a victim whose family will now watch the perpetrator walk free.

Read more here.

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Richard C. Young
Richard C. Young
Richard C. Young is the editor of Young's World Money Forecast, and a contributing editor to both Richardcyoung.com and Youngresearch.com.
Richard C. Young
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