Don’t: Joe Biden’s Middle East Policies in Shambles
It’s easy to think Iran’s drone and missile assault on Israel Saturday night into Sunday as an open act of aggression. The radical, audacious assault on Israel was meant to kill as many Israelis as possible. It isn’t the start of this conflict, rather it’s an escalation, argues the WSJ.
It’s an escalation of the war Iran has been waging against Israel for months through its Middle East proxies. The difference now is that Iran’s imperialistic face is in the open rather than in the shadows, and that should change calculations in Washington in particular.
Charles Lipton in the Spectator zeros in on why Iran’s unprecedented attack on Israel represents a dangerous escalation and why this is concerning:
- Its scale, some 300 drones and missiles.
- It’s the first time the Islamic Regime has launched a lethal attack on Israeli territory from Iran itself, rather than through proxies.
- The combination of the first two: a major attack launched against Israel from Iranian territory. Although Israel, the US, the UK and, surprisingly, Jordan managed to shoot down nearly all the incoming drones and missiles, it was the thought that counts.
More Bloodshed
What changed is a very dangerous thought, worries Mr. Lipton.
Within hours, the Iranian attack changed the region’s strategic landscape. It brought the Islamic regime into direct, open military conflict with Israel and its Western partners. More bloodshed is sure to come.
Western leaders should be concerned about the thousands of Americans living in Israel, any who could have been casualties, adds the WSJ.
Iran’s bombardment wasn’t discriminate or limited to military targets, unlike Israel’s precision strike that killed the IRGC generals.
Worry Not
Iran now comforts the world by promising it is “done. Fini. No need to worry.”
As emphasized in headlines from the New York Times, MSNBC and others on the left, Iran was just “retaliating.”
The effect of that framing is to justify Iran’s major escalation. That may play well on the Upper West Side, but not in Tel Aviv, Haifa, or Jerusalem. For Israel’s War Cabinet, the only questions now are how intense the Israeli response will be and whether that will lead to tit-for-tat escalation?
Consequences
Why Iran’s direct attack on Israel is critical:
- It marks a basic change in the strategy of Islamic regime.
- It, consequently, is a major change in the region’s politics, diplomacy, and security.
This Time Is Different
Until the recent attack, Iran’s response has always come from proxies. Israel has always participated in unsavory actions, like the one that killed a senior Iranian commander in Syria. What is new and different is Iran’s response.
Why?
The answer is unclear, admits Mr. Lipton. It could be a shift in who controls the regime’s foreign policy, or it could represent shifting views and greater risk acceptance by the same old leaders? “We simply don’t know, at least not yet.”
What we do know that this barrage is not the first sign of Iran’s greater aggressiveness. Its direct attack on Pakistan is another sign.
Genocide Joe: Failure at the Top
We know, too, that the Biden administration’s efforts to deter Iran failed. The question, as always with policy failures, is whether those responsible will change their stance or dig in their heels.
In this case, the failure comes from the top: President Biden. The president, secretary of defense Lloyd Austin, national security advisor Jake Sullivan and other senior administration officials repeatedly gave Tehran a one-word message: “Don’t.”
Uttering a single, ominous word was supposed to convey special authority. It didn’t work. What it told the world, we now know, is that the Biden administration’s threats were too feeble, too incredible to deter Iran.
In the last few days, the administration supplemented its rhetoric by deploying more ships and planes to the region. Neither the US military assets nor the tough talk managed to deter the radical Islamist regime. Either Tehran didn’t believe the words coming from Washington, or, like Japan before Pearl Harbor, it believed them but was willing to accept the risk. Why Iran is more “risk acceptant” now than in the past is unclear.
The Iranian attack signifies the dramatic failure of US deterrence in the region. It also marks the failure of the Biden administration’s broader effort to cope with Tehran by “playing nice,” warns Mr. Lipton.
Naturally, the administration will deny that’s what they have been doing. The denial is false. That’s exactly what they have been doing. It has been the foundation of their Middle East strategy.
It’s important that the Biden administration acknowledges, if only in private, its failure., so it can begin to change.
Whatever the White House does, the rest of us should recognize the failure and hold the Biden administration accountable.
Donald Trump would be right in highlighting the failure, which began when President Joe Biden deliberately reversed the Trump administration’s strategy of building a strong anti-Iran coalition and starving the Islamic regime of foreign income.
It managed to do that without putting more US troops in harm’s way. Trump’s unpredictability plus his deadly strike on Iranian military leader, Qasem Soleimani (in January 2020), made his threats credible. Biden’s threats clearly were not. Again, you can expect Trump to emphasize the difference on the campaign trail and underscore how Biden’s policies have led to disasters in Afghanistan, Ukraine and now the Middle East.
When Trump left office, Tehran was almost completely drained of foreign currency, thanks to the stringent application of sanctions. Biden’s more lenient policy — retaining the sanctions in name only but refusing to enforce them — allowed the Islamic Republic to rebuild its treasury. The (Biden) administration’s forlorn hope was that Tehran would become part of a wider, more cooperative region and would be encouraged by Washington’s outstretched hand. In fact, they slapped down that hand time after time. On Saturday, they tried to amputate it. Biden’s Middle East strategy now lies in ruins.
How will the Democratic presidential candidate deal with the left wing of the Democratic Party? Biden’s political risks are real. Muslim voters strongly oppose military aid of diplomatic support for Israel, and Joe Biden needs the Muslim votes in November.
They were already accusing the Biden administration of “genocide” for giving Israel any support in Gaza. Providing more weapons to Israel now would compound Biden’s electoral problems.