In The American Conservative, Pat Buchanan says there is an obvious reason Iran is abiding by the JCPOA deal, for the Republic, it is a great deal. Iran terminated its bomb program in 2003, then 2015 negotiated for $100 billion of frozen assets by proving the country wasn’t doing what the U.S. intelligence community knew it wasn’t doing, i.e. building a bomb. Pat writes (abridged):
Iran is making no demands on the United States. Its patrol boats have ceased harassing our warships in the Persian Gulf. Its forces in Iraq and Syria do not interfere with our operations against ISIS. And, according to U.N. inspectors, Iran is abiding by the terms of the nuclear deal.
Iran has never tested a nuclear device and never enriched uranium to weapons grade. Under the deal, Iran has surrendered 95 percent of its uranium, shut down most of its centrifuges and allowed cameras and inspectors into all of its nuclear facilities.
Why Iran is abiding by the deal is obvious. For Iran it is a great deal.
Having decided in 2003 not to build a bomb, Iran terminated its program. Then Tehran decided to negotiate with the U.S. for return of $100 billion in frozen assets from the Shah’s era — by proving they were not doing what every U.S. intelligence agency said they were not doing.
Should Iran rashly decide to go for a nuclear weapon, it would have to fire up centrifuges to enrich uranium to a level that they have never done, and then test a nuclear device, and then weaponize it.
A crash bomb program would be detected almost instantly and bring a U.S. ultimatum which, if defied, could bring airstrikes.
Iran’s economy is in dreadful shape. Its youth have voted repeatedly against presidential candidates favored by the Ayatollah. There are regular constant demonstrations against the regime.
Time is not on the side of the Islamic Republic.
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