One bright spot in the Election Day results for the GOP is the improvement in the party’s House membership.
How Many Seats did the GOP Win?
The current balance of the House is 232 Democrats, 197 Republicans, 1 Libertarian, and 5 vacancies.
Six races have been called as flips for the GOP so far, so at minimum, the party will enter the next Congress with 203 seats. But there are still races to be called.
There are 41 races left to be called. It looks like at the very best, the GOP could work its way up to 216 Reps, but that is an optimistic view. The final result will probably be somewhere between 203 and 216 seats for the GOP.
What Does that Mean?
That could be a strong enough minority to antagonize the Democrats once the fighting inevitably begins between the Nancy Pelosi-led establishment wing of the party and the AOC-led radical progressives.
With a narrower majority, Democrats’ internal strife won’t leave a lot of room for Pelosi to allow defectors. That means she will either have to 1) rein in any rebellious members, or 2) suffer from not getting anything done.
In the first option, the radical left-wing supporters of the party feel dejected, and in the second, the Dems do less damage to America. It’s a win-win for conservatives.
What About 2022?
The GOP gains in 2020 set the party up for a stronger chance of retaking control in the 2022 midterms. The president’s party usually loses seats in Congress during a midterm election. That assumes Biden wins, which is not yet absolutely certain.