Counting Up the Votes: Who Will Win—Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

Last update: 11/6/2012 10:00am It’s Election Day and time to pick a winner.  This is our final look at the polls before a winner is announced. As a baseline for this analysis, we rely on the battleground states identified by Criton Zoakos, president of Leto Research, Inc. That analysis is explained below. A look at the latest poll from Rasmussen for each battleground state gives Mitt Romney 44 electoral votes, three more than he needs to win the race.

Rasmussen National Poll: Romney +1%

Romney Predicted Pickup: 44

Obama Predicted Pickup: 26

Unallocated: 18

Predicted Winner Today: Romney

Mr. Zoakos has identified seven states as battlegrounds, including Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Florida, Michigan, and Ohio. He calls these “facts-based” battleground states. A number of other states commonly thought of as battlegrounds are what he calls “opinion-based” battleground states and have been assigned to either Barack Obama or Mitt Romney. President Obama is given credit for wins in Connecticut, Minnesota, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania, while former Governor Romney is given credit for Arizona, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Virginia, and Wisconsin.

The result of these assignments leaves the Electoral College vote split between the two major party candidates, with Mitt Romney receiving 229 Electoral College votes and Barack Obama receiving 221. The remaining battleground states Zoakos has identified represent 88 Electoral College votes.

Using the latest Rasmussen Reports polling spreads, we will determine who would win the election if it were held each day. To win, a candidate must amass 270 Electoral College votes. Of the 88 available in Zoakos’s identified battleground states, Romney must collect 41 to win, while Obama must collect 49. Keep up with our scorecard every day until Election Day.