Can War with Iran be Prevented?

Harry Kazianis, director of defense studies at the Center for the National Interest, writes that from where he sits, it seems possible war with Iran is inevitable.

Let that sink in. A country that poses no threat to the United States and has no known nuclear program, and has so far been adhering to a nuclear agreement brokered with the U.S. and its allies, might for some reason be a target for war.

In the past I’ve written a bit about the Weinberger/Powell Doctrine, and how it should be used to evaluate the need to go to war. Read through it here and come to your own conclusions on how Iran fits in. Kazianis writes about how he and fellow analysts gamed out a war with Iran and its unfortunate outcomes at The American Conservative:

Is war with Iran inevitable? Camped out here in Washington just two blocks from the White House, I can tell you one thing: it seems possible.

Back in 2013, a group of my colleagues did a series of wargames on what would happen if Iran and America ended up in a conflict.

Our wargame begins when Tehran responds, deciding to conduct large-scale naval exercises near the Strait of Hormuz.

In just the first day of the strait closure, the price of oil skyrockets by 10 percent.

So Washington delivers an ultimatum to Iran: end your naval activities near the strait or we will end them for you. Tehran is given 24 hours to leave the area or face military action.

So Washington delivers an ultimatum to Iran: end your naval activities near the strait or we will end them for you.

Washington opens the conflict with a series of massive cruise missile strikes from U.S. nuclear attack submarines operating in the region that wipes out the vast majority of Iran’s surface combatants in the strait.

Then Iran decides such an action cannot be allowed to stand, and decides to make a statement that not only is its military powerful, but it can cause serious damage to U.S. naval assets in the region. They counterattack with a massive volley of anti-ship missiles pointed at the ultimate symbol of U.S. military might: America’s only aircraft carrier operating in the region. Firing over 100 missiles, the carrier’s defenses are overwhelmed and the 100,000-ton vessel is destroyed, with over 2,000 sailors and airmen lost.

Iran doesn’t stop there. To make clear that it won’t tolerate any further U.S. military operations against its forces, Iranian conventional attack submarines—purchased from Russia—launch a series of attacks on U.S. surface combatants in the Persian Gulf

So Washington delivers an ultimatum to Iran: end your naval activities near the strait or we will end them for you.

And with that, war between America and Iran begins.

Washington opens the conflict with a series of massive cruise missile strikes from U.S. nuclear attack submarines operating in the region that wipes out the vast majority of Iran’s surface combatants in the strait.

Then Iran decides such an action cannot be allowed to stand, and decides to make a statement that not only is its military powerful, but it can cause serious damage to U.S. naval assets in the region. They counterattack with a massive volley of anti-ship missiles pointed at the ultimate symbol of U.S. military might: America’s only aircraft carrier operating in the region. Firing over 100 missiles, the carrier’s defenses are overwhelmed and the 100,000-ton vessel is destroyed, with over 2,000 sailors and airmen lost.

Iran doesn’t stop there. To make clear that it won’t tolerate any further U.S. military operations against its forces, Iranian conventional attack submarines—purchased from Russia—launch a series of attacks on U.S. surface combatants in the Persian Gulf.

Read more here.

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