As a mob of thousands of migrants made their way north from Honduras toward the U.S. border last week, events in a closely-watched congressional race took an important turn. Politico reported that Democrats had pulled resources out of their campaign against Republican Rep. Will Hurd in the 23rd District of Texas. If their national leadership has ceded TX23 — one of the most competitive districts in the country — Democrats’ chance of a Nov. 6 “blue wave” is now in serious doubt.
The connection between the American midterm election and the northbound caravan of Honduran migrants is probably not a coincidence, although liberals in the media will scream “conspiracy theory” at any Republican who points this out.
If your cynical hunch is that the latest “refugee” crisis has been manufactured by the Left as an election-year propaganda effort, however, you’re not alone. A Google search for the terms “Soros + Honduras + caravan” turned up nearly 300,000 results Friday. You don’t have to be paranoid to suspect that billionaire George Soros is paying the bills whenever you see any allegedly spontaneous “grassroots” activism on behalf of Democrats.
A drumbeat of headlines conveyed the sense of panic: “Dems struggle to mobilize Latino voters for midterms” (The Hill, Oct. 11), “‘We’ve got a Latino problem’: Dems fret midterm turnout in key House districts” (Politico, Oct. 13), “Democrats have a Latino problem. Can they fix it in time?” (NBC News, Oct. 14), “Democrats need Latino voters — but fret too many will skip the midterms” (CNN, Oct. 15).
The belief that Hispanic voters are, or should be, an ironclad constituency for Democrats, and that they will automatically endorse an open-borders agenda, is one of those identity-politics calculations that lead Democrats to assume they are on “the right side of history.”
All that is necessary to guarantee Democrat control of the U.S. government, according to this “social justice” mentality, is to mobilize a coalition of ethnic minorities, women and homosexuals against the waning Republican power of old white men.
That formula didn’t work so well for Hillary Clinton in 2016, and Democrats’ decision to double-down on identity politics in the 2018 midterms might produce a similar debacle.
Is it possible that the “blue wave” Democrats had hoped would return them to power in Washington will leave them high and dry?
Every analyst now agrees that Republicans are likely not only to maintain control of the Senate, but to expand their majority, perhaps to as many as 56 seats. Rep. Marsha Blackburn looks likely to keep the Tennessee seat vacated by retiring Sen. Bob Corker for the GOP, and Nevada Sen. Dean Heller, once viewed as highly endangered by Democrat Jacky Rosen’s challenge, has edged ahead in polls since the Kavanaugh hearings. Meanwhile, Democrat Sen. Heidi Heitkamp appears doomed to defeat by GOP challenger Jon Cramer, and four other incumbent Senate Democrats (Jon Tester in Montana, Claire McCaskill in Missouri, Joe Donnelly in Indiana and Bill Nelson in Florida) are in toss-up races that could go either way. Friday night, President Trump held a massive rally in Arizona, where Martha McSally is fighting to keep the seat opened by the retirement of Sen. Jeff Flake in Republican hands.
One analyst quoted by Politico, David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report, estimated there’s still a 30 percent chance Republicans might hold on to their House majority, although by the narrowest of margins.
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