Richardcyoung.com

The Online Home of Author and Investor, Dick Young

  • Home
  • How We Are Different
  • Debbie Young
  • About Us
    • Foundation Principles
    • Contributors
  • Investing
    • You’ve Read The Last Issue of Intelligence Report, Now What?
  • Your Survival Guy
  • The Great Reset
  • The Swiss Way
  • My Rifles
  • Dividends and Compounding
  • Your Security
  • COVID-19
  • Dick Young
  • Key West
  • Paris
  • Dick’s R&B Top 100
  • Liberty & Freedom Map
  • Bank Credit & Money
  • Your Survival Guy’s Super States
  • NNT & Cholesterol
  • Work to Make Money/Invest to Save Money
  • Your Health
  • Ron Paul
  • US Treasury Yield Curve: My Favorite Investor Tool

John Bolton Is Still Winning

June 21, 2018 By Justin Logan

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo poses for a photo with (L to R) National Security Advisor of the United States John Bolton, President Donald J. Trump and Vice President Mike Pence before his swearing-in ceremony at the U.S. Department of State in Washington, D.C., on May 2, 2018. [State Department photo/ Public Domain]

That North Korea summit didn’t stay in the headlines very long, did it?

I suspect that’s all right by John Bolton, who was frequently cited as having lost out in the decision to hold the meeting. But the crucial thing to keep in mind about Bolton is that he’s not just a manic war-hawk. On the issues he cares deeply about, he’s a savvy bureaucratic and political operator—maybe the only one in the White House right now.

In that light, if you think about the current political and policy context from Bolton’s point of view, it’s not bad at all.

Consider: Bolton did not convene a single Cabinet-level meeting to discuss the North Korea summit in the days preceding it. Why not? Simple: he’s more knowledgeable about North Korea than anyone else who would have been in the meeting, plus he’s closest to the president, geographically, and he knew that there was likely to be little of substance to emerge from an ill-prepared meeting. To be sure, he probably chafed at Trump’s decision to cancel joint US-South Korean military exercises, but in the scheme of things, that’s a loss you can take.

So is the outcome of the summit in Singapore, a platitudinous document jointly committing the United States and the Kim regime to the Great and the Good, with no substance detailing how. If I had to bet, I’d say Bolton’s thinking on North Korea is likely the same as his thinking on Iran, a subject I suspect he cares much more deeply about: Wait a while.

Describing the Johnson administration’s use of the Viet Cong attack on a U.S. installation at Pleiku in Vietnam as a tool for getting America into Vietnam, McGeorge Bundy remarked that “Pleikus are like streetcars.” That is, figure out what you want to do when you arrive and just wait for one to come by.

On North Korea, it seems very likely that Bolton doesn’t need to do anything. In the event the State Department began working on trying to flesh out details of North Korean “denuclearization,” Bolton knows very well that so much as defining that term is going to send the American side down a semantic rabbit hole from which they likely will not reemerge intact. If Bolton thought that there was a chance that negotiations could produce fruit–actual denuclearization in exchange for the withdrawal of American troops from the peninsula, for example–we would see or hear him fighting. The fact that we do not should suggest to us he has judged that fighting over the subject is not worth doing because the outcome is foreordained.

Meanwhile, some form of North Korean provocation is likely eventually, whether a move to restart nuclear tests, a pinprick attack against South Korea, a missile launch, or something else, and whatever it may be, it will serve to make Bolton’s argument for him: There’s no point in negotiating, because Pyongyang is intractably committed to confrontation.

On Iran, the picture is more interesting. Although Bolton convened no Cabinet-level meeting on North Korea, Politico notes that he has held Principals Committee meetings–which include Cabinet-level officials from the national security departments–on other subjects, and that these meetings have been “more focused” than the meetings convened by his predecessor. You can bet they were more focused–on Iran.

It is on that subject where Bolton has more work to do, and in particular more consensus-building to do inside the administration. While a very dark view of Iran is shared by all of the principals, Bolton has moved the ball by getting Trump to withdraw from the Iran deal. With the ball back in Iran’s court, Tehran unsurprisingly has announced that it intends to increase its enrichment capacity, putting us closer to the 2014-2015 hysteria that prevailed in Washington. With the United States having reneged on the deal, and with Iran acting accordingly, it’s likely that all Bolton has to do is wait. If Iran continues violating the spirit, to say nothing of the letter of the deal, Bolton will say we need to confront them.

And Trump is likely to follow.

Related Posts

  • John Bolton Hates Diplomacy
  • Bolton Nearly Torpedoes North Korea Talks with the Suggestion of Libyan Model
  • John Bolton: Reckless and Incompetent?
  • Author
  • Recent Posts
Justin Logan
Justin Logan is a contributing editor for RichardCYoung.com. Formerly the Cato Institute's director of foreign policy studies, Logan writes primarily about politics and American foreign policy. He holds a master’s degree in international relations from the University of Chicago and a bachelor’s degree in international relations from American University. He is an expert on U.S. grand strategy, international relations theory, and American foreign policy. He has lectured on American strategy across the country and across the world, and his articles have appeared in International Security, the Journal of Strategic Studies, Foreign Policy, the National Interest, the Harvard International Review, Orbis, National Review, the American Conservative, Reason, Politico, and the American Prospect, among others. A native Missourian, Logan currently lives in Washington, DC with his wife and two sons, where they are opening a Latin American wine and spirits bar, Ruta del Vino.
Latest posts by Justin Logan (see all)
  • The Case for Zero-Based Strategy - December 4, 2018
  • Thinking About a Noninterventionist Political Alliance - October 29, 2018
  • The Iran Issue Is Not Going Away …and All of the Wrong People Are in Charge - September 25, 2018

Dick Young’s Must Reads

  • Globalism Has Made America Dependent on Foreign Countries
  • Your Cash Swept into Your Broker’s Bank Account!
  • Hey, Where’s Everyone Going? Follow the Money Kid
  • The Problem in America
  • You Need to Seek Some Shelter for When Things Get Ugly
  • Conflict Between Democratic Sovereignty and Transnational Progressivism (Globalism)
  • The Armed American Family: Part I
  • Vermont Abandoned, Dairy Farm Economy Devastated
  • DEATH SPIRAL: Crime Soars in Democrats’ #DEFUNDTHEPOLICE Cities
  • For Whom Is Your Portfolio Serving?

Our Most Popular Posts

  • Freefalling at Stanford
  • Is Vanguard Voting Against Your Political Beliefs?
  • Pushing Back at ESG
  • Rand Paul Surprises Moderna CEO with Inside Information about Myocarditis Risk
  • Does Anyone Still Think Ron Paul Was Wrong?
  • The Forgotten America
  • Biden's Fake Democracy Summit: Hungary and Turkey Snubbed
  • “You Just Have to Be Willing to Move Defensively”
  • Are You Fairly Wealthy? I’m Listening
  • Who'd be Nuts Enough to Have Put Money into SVB?

Disclosure

RSS Youngresearch.com

  • Your Survival Guy’s #1 Habit of Fairly Successful People
  • New Regulation Coming for CDS Market?
  • “You Just Have to Be Willing to Move Defensively”
  • Americans Are Fleeing Bank Deposits
  • If You’re a Highly Effective Person, We Should Talk
  • Trouble Now Brewing at Deutsche Bank
  • Is Vanguard Voting Against Your Political Beliefs?
  • Are 0DTE Options a Threat to Markets?
  • “I Need Preservation of Principal and Growth”
  • Are You Fairly Wealthy? I’m Listening

RSS Yoursurvivalguy.com

  • Your Survival Guy’s #1 Habit of Fairly Successful People
  • Western Real Estate: From Zoom to Bust
  • “You Just Have to Be Willing to Move Defensively”
  • Did SVB Fail Because of Climate Change?
  • If You’re a Highly Effective Person, We Should Talk
  • What’s Happening to Charles Schwab?
  • Prepare for the Predictable
  • Is Vanguard Voting Against Your Political Beliefs?
  • Call It the Difference between Normal and Crazy
  • “I Need Preservation of Principal and Growth”

Our Friend Natia Presiding at Thirsty Mermaid Key West

The Forgotten America

Your Survival Guy’s #1 Habit of Fairly Successful People

Gstaad and the Swiss Way

What’s John Kerry Doing in Mexico?

Neocon Foreign Policy: A 100% Failure Rate

Copyright © 2023 | Terms & Conditions | About Us | Dick Young | Archives