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At Foreign Policy, Ellie Geranmayeh points to three possible futures for Iran after Syria’s fall. She writes:
Iran remains a regional power—one that still has choices. In his first speech following Assad’s demise, Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, put forward a defiant vision. He stated that the “Resistance Front is not a piece of hardware that can be broken, dismantled, or destroyed,” but rather it is a “doctrine” that will become stronger as a result of recent pressure.
Tehran could indeed dig its heels in and double down on rebuilding the Axis of Resistance with a long-game view. In doing so, Iran could pressure allied Shia armed groups in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen to be at the forefront of the fight against Israel. It could also seek to spoil Syria and Lebanon’s chance of post-conflict rehabilitation. The outcome of such an approach is likely to be bloody for Iran’s remaining allies. It could also be utilized by the Israeli government to build a stronger case in favor of attacks directly inside Iran.
Alternatively, Iran’s leaders could conclude that the Axis of Resistance has served its time and is no longer capable of deterring attacks inside Iran. Letting go of Assad may be an indication that Iran has acknowledged this as reality. Syrian rebels reached Damascus at lightning speed, with no army willing to put up a fight. With Hezbollah battered, Tehran saw no military solution to save Assad. Salvaging his regime, yet again, would have also been politically costly for Tehran, given its important neighbor, Iraq, whose government strongly pushed back against the mobilization of Shia Iraqi armed factions aligned with Iran.
If Iran’s leaders decide to step back from the Axis of Resistance, they will certainly invest more heavily in conventional weapons—especially missiles and drones—to deter military attacks from Israel and the United States. The case for doing so is enhanced by Israel’s unhindered bombing campaign across the Middle East over the past year, including two major strikes inside Iran, and stated Israeli ambitions to remake the regional order. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has talked about “changing the balance of power” in the region through the military campaigns in Gaza and Lebanon. The Israeli Defence Force has noted that the extensive bombing raids in Syria following Assad’s fall have destroyed much of Syria’s air defences, paving the way for strikes inside Iran. Netanyahu is also pushing hard to convince President Donald Trump that there is a golden opportunity for preemptive strikes to target Iran’s nuclear program.
If Iran divests away from the Axis of Resistance and instead focuses on its military capabilities at home, the world should anticipate both opportunities and risks. As part of a new deterrence strategy, Iran could consider taking the costly leap from being a nuclear threshold state to a nuclear weapons state. If Trump gives the green light for military strikes against Iran’s nuclear program, or ramps up the United States’ maximum pressure campaign against Iran without providing a realistic diplomatic off-ramp, then those within the Iranian establishment pushing for weaponizing the nuclear program will gain ground. This would present a major threat to global security and is bound to unleash a new chapter of conflict in the Middle East.
Read more here.
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