President Trump’s approval rating hit 46.3% today in the RCP average. That’s an all-time high. The President also scored his lowest disapproval rate since April 18, 2017.
Trump Nearing the Reelection “Sweet Spot”
The President’s average net disapproval ratings (disapproval minus approval) are at 4.3 points according to Real Clear Politics. Those are his best numbers since the early honeymoon days of his presidency. A number of recent polls have even found the President’s approval ratings in the “reelection sweet spot” area of 49% or more.
According to famed poll analyst Nate Silver, the simple rule for incumbent approval ratings “seems nearly perfect: every incumbent with an approval rating of 49 percent or higher won re-election, while every candidate with a rating of 48 percent or lower lost.” The closer the President’s approval ratings move toward 49%, the more likely his reelection.
Can Democrats Pick a Moderate They Like Before Bernie Runs Away with the Nomination?
In the Democratic primary, Sen. Bernie Sanders’ polls are soaring. He’s currently enjoying 29.3% support, but is that enough to coronate him? The short answer is no. Former Vice President Joe Biden enjoyed that level of support up until the Iowa caucuses, and it didn’t insulate him at all. Sanders’ grasp on the nomination is just as tenuous.
While Sanders is enjoying his lead, moderate Democratic voters are trying to determine which of the non-Sanders candidates they should rally behind. Judging by his spending, former Mayor Michael Bloomberg is eager to assume the mantle of leading establishment candidate. Judging by his debate performance in Nevada, he isn’t ready yet.
Bloomberg has gone on a name-recognition spending spree, introducing himself to voters across the country. Today, his polling of 15.3% is very near that Biden’s, who maintains 17.2% support. Since his disastrous performance in the debate, Bloomberg’s rapid rise in the polls has flattened.
By waiting so long to get on the ballot, Bloomberg gave Sanders time to pick up speed into Super Tuesday. After his shaky debate performance, establishment Democrats may be reviewing their options. Biden’s poll freefall stopped after the debate, and Warren has picked up support, while Klobuchar and Buttigieg have lost some of their momentum.
State Polling: Is South Carolina Biden’s Last Stand? Or the Beginning of a Comeback?
For much of the race, Joe Biden led polling in Nevada by a wide margin. The state ended up delivering Biden a distant second-place finish behind Bernie Sanders. That makes South Carolina Biden’s last opportunity to show voters and donors he can win.
Unlike in Nevada, Biden is heading into South Carolina with positive momentum in the polls. In South Carolina, things are a bit better for Biden. The last four polls run in the state have him leading, and by increasing spreads. The debate tonight will give Biden, and all the other candidates, one last big stage from which to seek support.
Every day Democrats can’t make up their minds, Trump is getting stronger.
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