There are many headwinds facing Democrats, and the biggest is having to protect too many senators in states that are hostile to their party.
Eight of the 10 Senate seats seen as most in jeopardy of flipping in 2018 are held by Democrats, and some are in areas that have seen local Republican victories in special elections since the president took office.
Even if the Democrats are able to rebrand their agenda—the party’s new motto is “A Better Deal: Better Skills, Better Jobs, Better Wages,” which has been compared to pizza company Papa John’s slogan—and win back some seats in areas where Trump barely clinched a victory, it likely won’t be enough to give them a majority in either house of Congress.
“Even if Democrats were to win every single 2018 House and Senate race for seats representing places that Hillary Clinton won or that Trump won by less than 3 percentage points—a pretty good midterm by historical standards—they could still fall short of the House majority and lose five Senate seats,” David Wasserman, of poll analysis site FiveThirtyEight, wrote Monday.
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