Peter Van Buren, writing at The American Conservative, explains why there will be no Blue Wave this year. With the Senate increasingly out of reach for Democrats, removing their hope of any power over the Supreme Court, this could be Democrats’ Last Stand. Van Buren writes:
Custer’s Last Stand, General George Armstrong Custer at the Battle of Little Bighorn, 1876, lithograph published 1899. By Everett Historical @ Shutterstock.com
There will not be a Blue Wave.
The Democrats’ goal in the Senate has diminished to limiting losses, not gaining seats, and they are unlikely to take control of the House.
Even TheWashington Post and The New York Times are hedging their bet.
All that matters this year is a 24-seat Democratic gain. Anything less—a Blue Dribble—and the House stays in Republican hands. Everything else aside, those are rough odds mathematically.
Though health care is voters’ number one issue of concern, there hasn’t been anything new offered by Democratic candidates.
Republicans rely on demographics that actually do turn out, in such numbers that Democrats need to motivate four Millennials to produce one vote (for Republicans, it’s more like three).
Actual turnout for those aged 65 and higher is expected to be 82 percent; it drops to 26 percent for those ages 18 to 29.
Trump’s overall approval rating continues to rise, a bad sign for a Democratic Party framing the midterms as a referendum on him.
Some 75 percent of Republicans want their congressional candidates to fall in line with Trump’s agenda. Republicans vote in midterms in higher percentages than Democrats. A group Democrats magically hoped would support them because they are not white, “Hispanics,” apparently don’t see it that way.
The current progressive superhero Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, whose victory was replacing one Democrat with another Democrat, all based on a 13 percent turnout in a densely populated district caught sleeping through a primary. A trick play like that only works once.
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