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You Won’t Believe How Tame the Dot Com Bubble Looks

September 20, 2021 By E.J. Smith - Your Survival Guy

Check out the number of S&P 500 stocks trading at more than ten times their sales. I’m not talking about ten times earnings. This is sales. You know, the price you pay for your house, your groceries, your heating bill—not the profit the company selling to you hopes to make. Imagine if the world you and I live in was priced this way? It would make inflation look like a drop in the bucket. Well, that’s how these companies that index funds are buying hand-over-fist are priced.

Look at the number of S&P 500 stocks trading for more than ten times their annual sales on the chart below. The number today is over double that of the peak of the Dot Com era.

Here’s why mutual funds no longer work for your retirement. Dick Young writes:

Is Your Family Prepared for the Next Disaster? Click Here to Survive and Thrive

My recent study covers four of the most widely owned equity-based mutual funds.

  1. Vanguard Equity Income
  2. Vanguard Dividend Growth
  3. T. Rowe Price Dividend Growth
  4. Fidelity Dividend Growth

Here’s the 10-year compounded growth rate for each:

  • T. Rowe Price Dividend Growth 12.0%
  • Vanguard Dividend Growth 12.0%,
  • Vanguard Equity Income 11.7%
  • Fidelity Dividend Growth 10.0%.

Today, each of these four multi-billion dollar funds has become far too big to allow crafting a portfolio with a suitable number of stocks that would meet my criteria. There are simply not enough publicly owned candidates.

Note how the long-term returns for all four of these funds are basically the same. In fact, the numbers for two are precisely the same.

Given these insurmountable roadblocks, your proper option is to stick with individual stocks.

For over three decades my family-owned investment firm has managed individual retirement portfolios (both current and future), comprising individual stocks (as well as bonds) meeting the rigorous dividend criteria I have written about since the early 1970s.

Each hand selected stock must pass my dividend tests of quality, seasoning, and liquidity.

Action Line: The clear path forward is to construct a portfolio with individual stocks that are carefully selected rather than just part of an index fund. If you need help, I would love to talk with you.

Originally posted on Your Survival Guy. 

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E.J. Smith - Your Survival Guy
E.J. Smith - Your Survival Guy
E.J. Smith is Founder of YourSurvivalGuy.com, Managing Director at Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd., a Managing Editor of Richardcyoung.com, and Editor-in-Chief of Youngresearch.com. His focus at all times is on preparing clients and readers for “Times Like These.” E.J. graduated from Babson College in Wellesley, Massachusetts, with a B.S. in finance and investments. In 1995, E.J. began his investment career at Fidelity Investments in Boston before joining Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd. in 1998.

E.J. has trained at Sig Sauer Academy in Epping, NH, NH, where he completed course-work in Practical and Defensive Handgun, Conceal Carry Pistol, Shotguns, Precision Scope Rifle and Kidnapping Prevention.

E.J. plays a Yamaha Recording Custom drum set with Zilldjian cymbals. His first drum set was a 5-piece Slingerland with Zildjians. He grew-up worshiping Neil Peart (RIP) of the band Rush, and loves the song Tom Sawyer—the name of his family’s boat, a Grady-White Canyon 306. He grew up in Mattapoisett, MA, an idyllic small town on the water near Cape Cod. He spends time in Newport, RI and Bartlett, NH—both as far away from Wall Street as one could mentally get. The Newport office is on a quiet, tree lined street not far from the harbor and the log cabin in Bartlett, NH, the “Live Free or Die” state, sits on the edge of the White Mountain National Forest. He enjoys spending time in Key West (RIP JB) and Paris.

Please get in touch with E.J. at ejsmith@yoursurvivalguy.com

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E.J. Smith - Your Survival Guy
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