What do New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut have in common? The three states, known as the Tri-State Region, all have Democratic governors who have imposed severe versions of lockdown on each state’s populace.
What Lockdown Has Accomplished
So what did these lockdowns achieve? Certainly not a death rate near the national norm. “The results of the differing policies are far from final at this point,” writes Francis Menton, “but data have begun to emerge.”
To look at success or failure of a given governor’s policies, you need to look at two things: the disease result (measured by rate of infections and/or deaths) and the economic results (measured by some metric of economic impact).
The Manhattan Contrarian records Tri-State unemployment claims as a percent of the labor force (as of 25 April):
- 3% New York
- 2% New Jersey
- 1% Connecticut
How Many Deaths per Million (DPMP)
As of this writing, three states rank 1st, 2nd, and 3rd highest of all states in deaths per million population (DPMP):
- New York 1,367
- New Jersey 1,012
- Connecticut 806
On Wednesday, Governor Cuomo of New York said it was “shocking” that most new coronavirus hospitalizations were among people who had been staying home and had not gone out much, reports Mr. Menton.
Now look at the two biggest-population states with Republican governors – Texas and Florida. Texas and Florida had relatively mild lockdowns, imposed relatively late. Both Texas and Florida have already begun the process of reopening.
Unemployment Claims as a Percent of the Labor Force (UCPLF)
Texas: Friday Senator Ted Cruz had his hair cut by a salon owner who had previously been arrested for staying open.
UCPLF 8.6% and DPMP of 37.
Florida: A friend of Mr. Menton’s had dinner at a restaurant in Sarasota that reopened last Friday.
UCPLF 8.8% and DPMP 78.
Why Mom Can’t Go to Dinner on Mother’s Day
There’s no such thing as an open restaurant or hair salon in New York or Connecticut.
It is very difficult to look at these data and believe that the lockdowns are accomplishing anything at all in disease prevention, even as millions of people get thrown out of work for little or no reason.
Yet anybody — from President Trump on down — who suggests that the time to reopen has come, immediately gets subjected to a media pile-on.
It’s almost as if they want the economy to fail for some reason.
(Francis Menton at the Manhattan Contrarian)