The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) finds that Russia’s war in Ukraine has become a costly, slow, and attritional conflict, with Moscow paying a steep price for minimal territorial gains. According to data from the Ukrainian General Staff, the average daily Russian casualty rate in October 2025 was 1,008 troops killed and wounded, highlighting the intense human cost of the fighting for minimal gains.

Overall, Russian forces have suffered nearly 1.2 million casualties (killed, wounded, and missing) since the start of the invasion in February 2022, including up to 325,000 killed (Since February 2022)—the highest losses for any major power since World War II—while advancing 70 meters per day (229.66 feet). That translates to an astonishing 4.39 deaths per foot gained in Ukraine.

The report also notes that the war is straining Russia’s economy, leading to declining manufacturing, weak growth, and reduced technological competitiveness, positioning the country increasingly as a second- or third-tier power.

Despite Kremlin claims of momentum, CSIS concludes that Russia’s military effectiveness and broader national power face significant pressure, leaving vulnerabilities that the US and Europe could exploit to influence the conflict’s trajectory. The CSIS writes:

If you listen to Russian President Vladimir Putin and even some U.S. policymakers, it sounds like Russia is marching to an inevitable battlefield victory in Ukraine. […]

The analysis has several main findings. First, Russian forces have suffered approximately 1.2 million casualties (killed, wounded, and missing) and as many as 325,000 killed since February 2022. No major power has suffered anywhere near these numbers of casualties or fatalities in any war since World War II. […]

From late February 2024 to early January 2026, Russian forces advanced roughly 10 kilometers, at an average pace of approximately just 15 meters per day. […]

Russian manufacturing suffered seven consecutive months of contraction in 2025, with production levels declining for ten consecutive months. […]

Economic growth slowed to 0.6 percent in 2025, and the International Monetary Fund estimated that growth would remain slow, at 0.8 percent, in 2026. […]

Despite Russian challenges, the great irony is that the United States and Europe have failed to fully wield the economic or military cudgels. Without greater pain, Putin will drag the talks out and keep fighting—even if it means millions of Russian and Ukrainian casualties.

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