Reuben Johnson of the National Security Journal reports that a new Ukrainian intelligence report shows that nearly four years into the full-scale invasion, Russia is still secretly importing foreign machine tools and components—mainly Japanese, Chinese, and Taiwanese CNC systems—needed to manufacture missiles, glide bombs, and artillery. Despite extensive international sanctions, these illicit supply chains remain largely intact and are even expanding, according to a retired U.S. intelligence official. The investigation, partly based on an OSINT hackathon and published on the War & Sanctions platform, traces advanced equipment into key Russian defense plants producing UMPK glide-bomb kits, mortar stabilizers, and Iskander-class missiles. The findings highlight ongoing failures in the sanctions regime and the continued difficulty of cutting off Moscow’s access to critical technologies. Johnson concludes:

Almost four years into the full-scale invasion, Ukrainian intelligence says Russia is still quietly importing the machine tools and components it needs to keep churning out missiles, glide bombs, and artillery.

A new GUR report, built in part from an OSINT “hackathon” and hosted on the War & Sanctions platform, traces Japanese, Chinese and Taiwanese CNC systems into key Russian plants producing UMPK glide-bomb kits, mortar stabilizers and Iskander-class missiles. […]

Biggest Enemy: Sanctions –Despite sweeping sanctions, this illicit supply chain remains largely intact.

One retired U.S. intelligence official puts it bluntly: progress is real, but “in the wrong direction” – Moscow’s access is growing, not shrinking. […]

Three years and nine months since the Russian military invaded Ukraine, Moscow’s defense plants continue to receive a plethora of foreign-made components and military-grade production systems and machine tools. […]

“The GUR is doing fine work,” said the retired US intel official. “The problem I have is that we have heard all of this for more than two years now. Choking off Moscow’s supply of these essential inputs and machinery that underpin its missile industry is always ‘just around the corner.’ But we never seem to reach that corner – wherever and whenever it is.”

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