In Strategic Culture, Alistaire Crooke explains that the actions of the Trump administration and the leaders of Iran have set an escalatory trap. He writes:

Vice-President Vance is saying to Iran, “If you try to close the Strait of Hormuz, the American military will respond. It’s that simple” – i.e. Iran either keeps the Strait fully open to all, or the U.S. will keep hitting it, as it did on Tuesday night.

Iran insists that it is the U.S. that has violated the MoU and (via the spokesman for Iran’s Parliamentary National Security Committee) warns that further attacks by the U.S. on Iran will be met by a comprehensive all-out surprise offensive by Iran – and potentially by other options too, such as an Iranian withdrawal from the NPT, changing the country’s nuclear doctrine, and closing the Bab al-Mandab Strait alongside the Strait of Hormuz.

So, Vice-President Vance is saying if Iran restricts Hormuz (i.e. it stays open to friendly states’ vessels) the U.S. will escalate. And Iran is responding to this threat by warning that it will escalate militarily – two strikes for every one American strike – and that they may also turn to new doctrines of warfare.

Essentially, Trump has plunged into an escalatory trap, seemingly in part out of pique at his collapsing polls at home. He did, however, directly put himself in this situation by trying to ‘act cute’ during the Khamenei funeral pre-occupations in order to try to gain a ‘quick win’.

Read more here.