Since 1900 there have been five incumbent presidents who lost their bids for reelection. William Taft, Herbert Hoover, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George H.W. Bush.
Every election has its own important issues, but for most voters, it’s about the economy. And one thing ties all of these defeated incumbents together: unemployment was 7% or more in the year they faced reelection. Here are the numbers, with the current president added in for comparison.
|William Taft lost to Woodrow Wilson in 1912.||7.0%|
|Herbert Hoover lost to Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1932.||23.6%|
|Gerald Ford lost to Jimmy Carter in 1976.||7.8%|
|Jimmy Carter lost to Ronald Reagan in 1980.||7.2%|
|George H.W. Bush lost to Bill Clinton in 1992.||7.4%|
|Donald Trump: current unemployment in 2019——–>||3.5%|
Can anyone believe Donald Trump will lose reelection with unemployment rates lower than those during the Reagan administration? Or the much-vaunted Clinton administration? Remember when Democrats disregarded Clinton’s impeachment because the economy was doing well?
The lowest unemployment level reached during Clinton’s two terms in office was 4%, and only for his last two lame-duck months. During Donald Trump’s presidency, unemployment has been below 4% during 18 separate months, including the last ten consecutive months. And today unemployment stands at a 50 year low of 3.5%.
Is there any way Trump can lose in 2020?