Is Iowa Just a Preview of a Full Blown Democratic Party Meltdown?

Joe Biden, the 47th vice president of the United States, was the featured guest for the Tom Johnson Lectureship at the LBJ Presidential Library on Tuesday, Oct. 3, 2017. 10/03/2017 LBJ Library photo by Jay Godwin

John Podhoretz explains in the NY Post that the fiasco in Iowa today could simply be a preview of a party-wide meltdown for Democrats. He writes (abridged):

What happens when the nominating process begins reflecting another schematic reality — the entry of African-American voters in sizable numbers?

Before any voting, Biden was running away with them. In January, a Washington Post-Ipsos poll had Biden at 48 percent nationally and Sanders at 20.

But it’s only in the fourth state to vote, South Carolina, that African Americans will be the decisive players. Now, if Sanders runs the table in the first three (Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada), his numbers will surely improve. Still, if past history is any guide, 25 percent of the overall Democratic primary electorate will be black.

If you combine Biden’s strength with the elderly and his strength among African Americans, Sanders’ base of young voters starts to look a little shaky. The problem is Biden has to remain viable through a month in which he might start appearing hapless and, well, excessively old.

The Billionaire Mothership

And then, hovering in the background, is the Billionaire Mothership. If Biden melts down, Bernie isn’t exactly going to glide effortlessly to the nomination the way Donald Trump did as the populist insurgent darling.

What we know is that Mike Bloomberg has been dropping his infinite dollars in the places where people are going to be voting a month from now — just as voters in the largest states begin to hit the ballot boxes having heard almost no ads and seen relatively few Facebook posts from anyone but the former mayor.

All of this is a recipe for chaos — even more so because the Democratic Party’s apportionment of delegates is by voting percentage within each state rather than the Republican party’s winner-take-all system.