Joe Biden, the 47th vice president of the United States, was the featured guest for the Tom Johnson Lectureship at the LBJ Presidential Library on Tuesday, Oct. 3, 2017.
10/03/2017 LBJ Library photo by Jay Godwin
After an embarrassing fourth-place finish in Iowa, Joe Biden is facing what could be a disastrous showing in New Hampshire. Biden is currently polling in fifth place (according to the Real Clear Politics average of polls for New Hampshire).
Far ahead with 28.7% in New Hampshire is Sen. Bernie Sanders, who represents next-door Vermont. Behind Sanders by 7.4 points is Pete Buttigieg, who, along with Amy Klobuchar in third, has absorbed many defecting Biden supporters. Tied with Biden is Elizabeth Warren. The Massachusetts Senator hasn’t been able to generate any momentum. The other remaining candidates sit far behind in polls.
If predictions are correct and Biden is embarrassed in NH, his best chances to recover will be in Nevada and South Carolina. Nevada’s last polls were in early January and trended badly for Biden. More promising was a fairly recent poll in South Carolina, conducted by East Carolina University, showing Biden with an 18-point lead at the start of February.
Bloomberg’s Big Bucks Peel Away Biden Voters
Throughout the primary campaign, Joe Biden’s national polling average had never fallen below 26% until now. Biden’s support is crashing fast, and sits today at 19.8%, his lowest yet. Bernie Sanders has pulled ahead of Biden with support at 23.8%. The momentum story in national polls is Michael Bloomberg, who appears to be absorbing Biden’s losses, which isn’t surprising given the money he is spending.
Indeed, the billionaire former mayor of New York is outspending the entire field of other 2020 candidates, including President Trump. Since January 1, 2019, Bloomberg has spent $310.4 million, compared to just $115.3 million for everyone else. Bloomberg appears ready to test the idea that American voters’ loyalties can be purchased.
New Hampshire Results?
As long as New Hampshire doesn’t suffer the sort of debacle Iowa did in counting up results, America should know tonight who will head into Nevada as the leader. It looks as though Biden will be fighting the downward momentum of his sagging campaign.
Rough Week for Democrats: Catastrophe and Fiasco
Last week was a rough one for Democrats. Monday began the Iowa caucus fiasco. Tuesday saw President Trump deliver a triumphant State of the Union address. On Wednesday, the President was acquitted in the Senate. On Thursday, Trump racked up a foreign policy win with the killing of al-Qaeda terrorist leader Qassim al-Rimi. The President also took a victory lap at the National Prayer Breakfast, taunting nearby Nancy Pelosi with a copy of The Washington Post headlined “Trump Acquitted.” All the good news for Trump has raised his approval ratings impressively.
Democrats Sounding the Alarm: “This is Very Bad”
Meanwhile, many Democratic personalities are sounding the alarm. Bill Maher said about Trump: “I thought it was his best week ever.” Maher continued: “The Democrats are — they just look like the gang that can’t shoot straight or can’t run straight, and if they can’t get their act together soon it’s going to be over before it begins.”
After Trump’s State of the Union speech, which featured many African American guests in the President’s box, Van Jones told a CNN panel that “what he was saying to African-Americans can be effective. You may not like it, but he mentioned HBCUs [historically black colleges and universities] — our black colleges have been struggling for a long time, a bunch of them have gone under — he threw a lifeline to them, in real life, in his budget.”
And when asked to clarify why he said he was “scared to death” of the 2020 election, Democratic strategist James Carville told Sean Illing of Vox, “Look, the turnout in the Iowa caucus was below what we expected, what we wanted. Trump’s approval rating is probably as high as it’s been. This is very bad. And now it appears the party can’t even count votes. What the hell am I supposed to think?”
Will Americans Really Leave Trump for Socialism?
Today Democrats are on track to elect a socialist as their nominee. Meanwhile, President Trump is performing at his best yet as a president. Will Americans really want to leave Trump’s economic and foreign policy successes behind to try their luck on the demonstrably risky record of socialism? It seems hard to imagine.
See all Election Tracker 2020 coverage by clicking here.
Tim Jones
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