Operation Epic Fury
Given what the WSJ calls “the remarkable pessimism” in the media and the political class about the U.S. bombing campaign against the terrorist regime in Iran, five days into the war, it would be easy to think from the coverage that the US is losing.
Financial markets are said to be in turmoil, the war is “engulfing” the region and maybe the world, the U.S. is running out of missiles, the war is a gift to Russia, and there’s no plan for how this ends—these are only a few of the dire media themes.
No one denies that war is unpredictable, and uncertainties may abound. Rarely, notes the Journal, do so many seem so eager to predict American humiliation.
Heartbreaking that six US soldiers are dead and more are wounded so early in the war, yet the war is going better than expected.
Iran’s political and military leaders were killed in the first hour in a remarkable display of intelligence collection and precision bombing. Iran’s missile stocks, its launchers, and production are gradually being destroyed. Its navy may soon be reduced to a few fast skiffs, if they dare to leave shore.
On Wednesday, Gen. Dan Caine, the Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman, told the press, “Iran’s theater ballistic missile shots fired are down 86% from the first day of fighting, with a 23% decrease just in the last 24 hours.” Their “one-way attack drones” are down 73% from opening salvos.
According to the Pentagon, “U.S. dominance of the air is so complete that it no longer needs to use as many ‘standoff weapons’ that fire from a distance. Instead, it can use more precision-guided gravity bombs that the U.S. has in far greater numbers. Israel and the U.S. are now turning these weapons against the regime’s means of domestic control—the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the paramilitary Basij.”
Perhaps you are wondering how the world’s markets are going? The surprise, according to the Journal, is how relatively mild the disruption has been.
The prices of oil and gasoline are up, but Brent crude is barely higher than it was amid Operation Midnight Hammer last June. A long-term shutdown of oil and natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz would do greater harm, but President Trump says the U.S. Navy may escort tankers. U.S. equity markets dove at first but have since largely recovered.
All of this looks in line with the war aims President Trump laid out last Saturday.
The Iranian nuclear sites and missile and naval forces are being degraded to an extent that it would take years to rebuild them, and U.S. casualties have been light.
Indeed, regime elements do remain in control. What is still unknown is whether the Iranian people will be able to rise up and overthrow the regime. Impossible to predict if a pro-Western regime could emerge or if friendly leaders to the current regime are willing to renounce “designs to build a bomb, dominate their neighbors, or spread terrorism around the world.”
A long civil war that creates refugees that destabilize neighbors would be a far-worse outcome, notes the Journal.
Wars always lead to surprises, and Mr. Trump took a risk in choosing to bomb again. We wish he had prepared the country better before the war.
For now, we face war, which means our troops are in harm’s way. The WSJ advises readers take an old-fashioned approach:
… we ought to hope for American success, both military and strategic. The world will be safer if there is a better regime in Tehran that isn’t bent on the mission of “death to America.” And maybe, before anticipating or cheering failure, we could wait and see how it goes.
