What’s the Number Needed to Treat (NNT)?

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Phillip Wegman at RealClear Politics reports:

“That a return to masks is even being considered is a direct result of the delta variant of the coronavirus burning its way through the country. It is now the dominant variant worldwide, and it accounts for the majority of new COVID cases among the unvaccinated. Experts say that vaccines remain highly effective against it. Indeed, a new study published in the New England Journal of Medicine reports that two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was 88% effective at preventing symptomatic disease from the delta variant. Two shots of AstraZeneca vaccine were 67% effective…

Dick and I were discussing the accountability that Pfizer vaccine is “88% effective at preventing symptomatic disease from the Delta variant” and two shots of AstraZeneca are “67% effective.”

The concept of NNT, or number needed to treat, offers compelling insight for every patient regardless of the prescribed drug or disease in question, Dick wrote in 2012. The source of the majority of these data is industry, “which has a spotty history of integrity in trial data reporting, suggesting these data to be a best-case scenario.”

As an example, here is a headline from a Time article posted by RCY 7 May 2012:

“Statins May Half Heart Attack Risk”

In the article, the following was noted:

• 17,800 people were tracked in the study.
• Half (8,900) were given a placebo.
• Half (8,900) were given the statin drug Crestor.
• Over about two years, the article notes, 31 statin-takers suffered a heart attack.
• When compared to the placebo group, the figures translate to a 54% lower risk of heart attack.
• It would thus calculate that perhaps 67 non-statin takers suffered a heart attack.
• Thus 36 heart attacks were potentially prevented.
• The NNT (number needed to treat): 8,900 people needed to be treated to prevent 36 potential heart attacks.
• It can thus be calculated that 247 people needed to be given Crestor to potentially prevent one heart attack.

The article’s headline holds out hope that heart attack risk was “halved”?

See how quickly 247 NNT loses appeal?

Also today, read, What to do when Joe Biden falsely promotes the COVID vaccine, by Richard Koenig at Spectator World.