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Your Retirement Life: A Living Income from Savings

April 12, 2024 By E.J. Smith - Your Survival Guy

You want a forward-looking indicator? Look at the stock market or 10-year Treasury bond—both flashing warning signs this week. But how about years from now? What will the decades ahead—your retirement life—look like? What if we’re going back in time?

You and I, we’re in the business of patience. With so much attention paid to what the market did this week or who won last night’s game, it can be difficult to remember that investing is an endeavor in b-o-r-i-n-g. At least until you have enough to retire on, and then it’s fun.

Saving money takes time. Every day you’re taking baby steps toward your goals. Looking at the scoreboard, like checking social media, is short-term. It’s price checking. Emotional.

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The question you asked me the most this week is, “Survival Guy, where are interest rates headed?” Good question. I know the thinking is higher. Because with all this debt and inflation, how could they not go higher? But what if, for example, the Fed gets its wish and cuts rates? And what if it stops issuing 10-year treasuries like it stopped issuing the 30-year back in 2001?

What if the government only issues debt with maturities around a couple of years so they can have more control? Wouldn’t that make existing treasuries maturing beyond a couple of years more valuable?

Look at the real estate market. America’s pastime. If mortgage rates reflect the 10-year Treasury, why keep it? Why not intervene (not that word again) and create a new mortgage rate based on some federal invention? A new acronym like the horrible twins Fannie and Freddie? Guaranteed low rates.

We just don’t know. And because of that, if your goal is to be able to live off the interest and dividends from your savings, don’t be too cute and think the yield curve is predictable. It’s not. Wouldn’t it be a shame if you didn’t lock in pretty good rates today by being greedy with too much in short-term holdings?

Action Line: Beat inertia. Save ‘til it hurts. Work with an advisor who’s a fiduciary. You got this. When you want help, I’m here.

But here’s the time travel lesson for today. Remember this?

NEW YORK (CNNmoney) – The U.S. government said Wednesday it no longer will issue 30-year Treasury bonds because they don’t meet the government’s cash needs and discontinuing them will save U.S. taxpayers money.

“We do not need the 30-year bond to meet the government’s current financing needs, nor those that we expect to face in coming years,” Peter Fisher, the Treasury Department’s Under Secretary for Domestic Finance, said in prepared remarks.

Fisher said the decision would cut borrowing costs, since the government currently pays a higher interest rate for long-term bonds than for short-term bonds.

“They’ve been moving in this direction for a couple of years, reducing the size and frequency of 30-year auctions,” said Bill Hornbarger, bond analyst at A.G. Edwards. “The big surprise is the timing, not the act itself. It happens in front of a couple of years where it looks like we’ll be running deficits.”

The price of the 30-year bond soared 5-10/32 points to 107-28/32 after the announcement, pushing its yield, which moves inversely to the price, down to 4.87 percent, the lowest in nearly three years, from 5.21 percent late Tuesday.

Originally posted on Your Survival Guy. 

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E.J. Smith - Your Survival Guy
E.J. Smith - Your Survival Guy
E.J. Smith is Founder of YourSurvivalGuy.com, Managing Director at Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd., a Managing Editor of Richardcyoung.com, and Editor-in-Chief of Youngresearch.com. His focus at all times is on preparing clients and readers for “Times Like These.” E.J. graduated from Babson College in Wellesley, Massachusetts, with a B.S. in finance and investments. In 1995, E.J. began his investment career at Fidelity Investments in Boston before joining Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd. in 1998.

E.J. has trained at Sig Sauer Academy in Epping, NH, NH, where he completed course-work in Practical and Defensive Handgun, Conceal Carry Pistol, Shotguns, Precision Scope Rifle and Kidnapping Prevention.

E.J. plays a Yamaha Recording Custom drum set with Zilldjian cymbals. His first drum set was a 5-piece Slingerland with Zildjians. He grew-up worshiping Neil Peart (RIP) of the band Rush, and loves the song Tom Sawyer—the name of his family’s boat, a Grady-White Canyon 306. He grew up in Mattapoisett, MA, an idyllic small town on the water near Cape Cod. He spends time in Newport, RI and Bartlett, NH—both as far away from Wall Street as one could mentally get. The Newport office is on a quiet, tree lined street not far from the harbor and the log cabin in Bartlett, NH, the “Live Free or Die” state, sits on the edge of the White Mountain National Forest. He enjoys spending time in Key West (RIP JB) and Paris.

Please get in touch with E.J. at ejsmith@yoursurvivalguy.com

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