In the WSJ, Karl Rove has some good news for any GOPers who feel pessimistic over Texas and Democrats in the upcoming general election. Record turnout by Democrats does not guarantee success, he reminds readers.

Last week, with the Lone Star state’s balloting, some 2.3 million Texans voted in the Democratic primary and 2.2 million in the Republican primary.

From the Texas Tribune: The “higher turnout on the Democratic side has helped fuel Democrats’ hopes that backlash to President Donald Trump’s policies could propel them to their first statewide win since 1994.”

According to a Southern Methodist University poli-sci professor, Democrats weren’t “generally” thought to have that “great of a chance to win statewide office,” but that may not be true “this time.”

An NBC News analyst argued, “Democrats have matched their hype with real numbers at the polls.” Turning out more of them in the primary than Republicans did “left no doubt that Democrats have the will to win Texas.”

Mr. Rove suggests that everyone hold their horses here.

Primary turnout isn’t a reliable predictor of general-election outcomes.

In 2020, more Texas Democrats voted than Republicans in the presidential primary, 2.1 million to two million. That fall, Donald Trump beat Joe Bidenin the state 52% to 47%, while Republican Sen. John Cornyn was re-elected with 54% of the vote. The rest of the GOP statewide ticket received between 53% and 55% of the vote.

In 2008, 2.9 million Texans voted in the Democratic primary, more than double the Republican 1.4 million. Yet that November, Sen. John McCain carried Texas with 56% of the vote compared with Barack Obama’s 44%. Mr. Cornyn won his first re-election, 55% to 43%.

Now let’s review 2004, when more than 800,000 Texans participated in the Democratic primary.

Fewer than 700,000 came out for the Republican primary. Still, President George W. Bush carried the state, 61% to 38%. The rest of the GOP statewide ticket against Democratic opponents received between 55% and 59%.

Even though 2002 was the last time Democrats outvoted Republicans in a midterm primary, Mr. Cornyn scored his first Senate victory by beating Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk 55% to 43%. Gov. Rick Perry, who as lieutenant governor succeeded George W. Bush when he was elected president in 2000, won a full term, 58% to 40%.

The historical record suggests, predicts Mr. Rove, “it’s a stretch to believe Republicans being outvoted in a primary indicates a Democratic general election statewide victory.”

Is the increased turnout in heavily Hispanic counties a harbinger of a Democratic victory this fall? New York Times chief political analyst Nate Cohn, noting the high turnout among Hispanics, wrote that 2026 is “shaping up to be a strong one for Democrats” in Texas.

Hold on to your breeches, Mr. Rove once again recommends.

Half the Democratic primary voters “left their ballots blank in the Senate race.” They’d turned out for the contest for county judge—the county chief executive position in Texas.

In case anyone thinks everything is hunky-dory for Texas Republicans, read on. Taylor Rehmet is whom Democrats nominated. Rehmet seems to be a normal, middle-of-the-road-appearing everyman. Republicans nominated Leigh Wambsganss, a hard-right, angry divider.

The Democrat won, flipping a suburban seat Republicans had held for decades.

To weigh Democratic chances for a statewide victory in Texas, Mr. Rove suggests judges wait for the Republican Senate runoff.

The nomination of the scandal-ridden Attorney General Ken Paxton instead of Mr. Cornyn could let Democrats repeat in Texas what they did in a 2017 Alabama Senate special election. That’s when Democrat Doug Jones beat a baggage-laden Republican candidate, Roy Moore.

The May GOP Senate runoff—not Democratic primary turnout—will be the key factor this year in Texas, Karl Rove reminds Texans.

“Lone Star Republicans had better choose wisely if they want to keep Texas red.”