Is Putin Being Snookered?

What Joe Biden Could Have Done

In The Federalist, John Daniel Davidson explains the consequences of Donald Trump’s executive orders declaring a national emergency at the southern border. As editors at the WSJ point out, with all the ruckus, the Trump administration might be missing a serious opportunity. Lost in the tumult are “particular events,” first among them being Trump’s rapid success at the border.

President Trump’s tough talk, the immediate expulsion of illegal aliens, and White House border czar Tom Homan’s enforcement actions have clearly begun to remedy what was an unmitigated disaster.

An estimated 10.7 million illegal immigrants crossed the southern border into the U.S. during the Biden administration. That’s roughly 7,324 a day.

On Tuesday, border czar Homan reported:

Border Patrol encounters on the southern border dropped 85% in January after Mr. Trump’s inauguration compared with the same period in 2024. On Feb. 16, the Border Patrol encountered 229 illegal aliens at the border—only 3% of the average daily number under the Biden administration.

Upon taking office, Trump signed a series of executive orders declaring a national emergency at the southern border and ordering construction of the border wall to resume.

• Trump also reinstated his “Remain in Mexico” policy to deter illegal crossings.
• Trump authorized the National Guard and active duty military to work with Customs and Border Patrol agents to secure the border.
• The Trump administration also ended the use of the CBP One app. The Biden administration used the app to dole out mass paroles for illegal border-crossers — some 30,000 a month under Biden.”

Success tends to foster more success, Karl Rove reminds WSJ readers.

… this was one of the big three issues in the 2024 election; a win here is important. But to make a strong impression with Americans, the president should be involved in a high-profile way. Mr. Trump surely enjoyed hurtling around the curves at the Daytona 500 Sunday. But maybe he should visit with state and local officials on the southwest border to celebrate Mr. Homan’s success. Lots can go wrong in a presidency; why not take credit for what’s going right?

Why, Mr. Rove, would a victory lap be so important now?

Other administration efforts haven’t yet proved themselves to Americans. Yes, the Department of Government Efficiency appears to be shaking things up and shrinking the federal workforce, but will it save the promised trillions and result in less inefficiency, waste and fraud? And how exactly will slapping a 20% tax on imports bring prices down for American consumers? Voters want the president to explain how his actions will make their lives better.

Lurking in the background is Ukraine, perhaps the greatest difficulty, which is likely to guarantee Donald Trump’s legacy, continues Mr. Rove:

A Russian victory could send Mr. Trump’s approval numbers further south than the debacle in Afghanistan drove Joe Biden’s. The ripple effects would be global. The Chinese might be emboldened to take Taiwan. Russia might begin menacing Central Europe and the Baltic states. Europe would be under pressure to buy Russian rather than American natural gas. North Korea and Iran could step up their dangerous mischief making.

Still Wet Behind the Ears 

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth suggested needless concessions before negotiations began, forcing him to walk them back after Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Adviser Michael Waltz showed up “to remind everyone they had the foreign-policy lead.”

Mr. Trump got into the concession game, suggesting Russia could return to the Group of Seven and that Ukraine would never be allowed into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization or recover all its territory. On Wednesday, he put more rhetorical pressure on Kyiv, seemingly blaming Ukraine for starting the war, calling President Volodymyr Zelensky a dictator for not holding elections during wartime, and accusing Ukraine of misappropriating U.S. aid.

Was anyone surprised when Putin decided to throw around his weight? Apparently, Rove points out,  Putin is refusing to talk to Keith Kellogg, Mr. Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia.

Steve Witkoff, Mr. Trump’s Middle East envoy, has been in Mr. Kellogg’s seat at the U.S.-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia. If Mr. Putin objected to Mr. Kellogg, it’s because the Russian dictator fears able adversaries. More reason for Mr. Trump to rely on Mr. Kellogg’s counsel.

Another Possibility

What if Mr. “Art of the Deal” is lulling Putin while setting him up for a great fall? Maybe, suggests Mr. Rove, the President has Mr. Putin “right where he wants him.”

Consider Mr. Trump’s proposal to Mr. Zelensky, whereby the U.S. would get an interest in Ukraine’s mineral wealth. Mr. Zelensky rightly rejected the first draft as too one-sided. But it would scare the pants off Mr. Putin if Ukraine and the U.S. came to a mutually acceptable deal. Such a lend-lease agreement would guarantee continued U.S. military support of Kyiv.

Much is at stake in how the Russian invasion of Ukraine ends – like the “freedom of some 38 million Ukrainians, global peace and security, restoration of America’s reputation for strength and Mr. Trump’s status as the world’s ultimate deal maker, as well as his standing at home. Beijing, Tehran and Pyongyang are watching how Mr. Trump deals with Moscow.

Let’s hope they conclude there’s a tough new (powerbroker) in town with whom they shouldn’t mess.