War, Emigration, and Declining Births Push Ukraine Toward Demographic Collapse

By Olena Kapinus @Adobe Stock

Ukraine is facing a deepening demographic crisis as war casualties, mass emigration, and plummeting birth rates drain the country of its future workforce. In the western town of Hoshcha, a once-busy maternity ward now stands nearly empty, symbolizing a nationwide collapse in births as young men are killed or mobilized and families postpone having children amid uncertainty. Ukraine’s population has already fallen from 42 million to under 36 million and could drop to as low as 25 million by 2051, with schools closing, villages emptying, and life expectancy dropping sharply — especially for men. The government warns it will face a deficit of millions of workers needed to rebuild and defend the country after the war, and is trying to lure citizens home and attract immigrants, according to Max Hunder of Reuters. But with continued attacks, economic pressures, and widespread trauma, many Ukrainians see little stability on which to build families, raising fears about who will remain to rebuild the nation once the fighting stops. Hunder writes:

While many Ukrainian hospitals are struggling to cope with the endless influx of wounded, a maternity ward in the western town of Hoshcha lies eerily deserted.

The hospital in Hoshcha has recorded just 139 births so far this year, down from 164 in 2024, and a far cry from just over a decade ago when more than 400 babies were born every year, according to local authorities.

“Many young men have died,” gynaecologist Yevhen Hekkel lamented in his office. “Young men who, bluntly speaking, were supposed to replenish Ukraine’s gene pool.” […]

Ukraine’s population – 42 million before the full-scale invasion in February 2022 – has already shrunk to below 36 million, including several million in areas captured by Russia, according to the demography institute at Ukraine’s National Academy of Sciences.

It estimates the figure will drop to 25 million by 2051.

The collapse is gathering pace. […]

Anastasiia Tabekova, Panchuk’s deputy on the town council, has a husband who’s serving in the military.

“After I found out I was pregnant, a few days later my husband was mobilized,” she said.
“They gave him leave to attend the birth. He left with tears in his eyes.”

Children can provide hope for the future, she said.

“I know many wives whose husbands are fighting, I know wives whose husbands are unfortunately no longer with us,” she added. “They are holding on, some are in therapy, for some their children are a moment of joy, a reason to not give up.”

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