Joseph L. Votel and Elizabeth Dent of War on The Rocks discuss the precarious situation in Syria and continued U.S. involvement there. They write:
Five years ago, we warned that a snap decision to depart Syria — abandoning the U.S. Kurdish-led partner force that has fought the Islamic State in Syria for the last 10 years while thousands of suspected fighters remained in detention — would provide a devastating setback to the fight against the terror group and damage overall American credibility. A few weeks later, amongst a U.S. withdrawal and subsequent Turkish invasion into areas held by the Syrian Democratic Forces, led by the Kurdish People’s Protection Units, we argued the United States would need to maintain the ability to fight remnants of the Islamic State and ensure the fighters in detention would remain there. Washington ceded much of its negotiating power in the country to Moscow and Ankara, only to reverse course a few months later and keep a small allotment of troops in northeast Syria to prevent a power vacuum and a run on Syrian oil and gas infrastructure.
Today, the United States and its Kurdish-led partners face a nearly identical set of challenges, but in a massively changed balance of power in Syria. Last month, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a Syrian opposition group with previous ties to al-Qaeda and the self-proclaimed Islamic State, shocked the world with an offensive alongside the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army that quickly toppled the Assad regime within 10 days. […]
Despite its historical proclivities, the most important thing the incoming administration can do right now is exercise patience by reaffirming the American commitment to the current military mission in Syria. There is no need to expand it. This will be a difficult step but it will have the benefit of keeping pressure on the Islamic State while also allowing the United States to take advantage of opportunities that may emerge with the new Syrian government. The current situation merits strong consideration of this approach. […]
While it is unclear what exactly Trump will do when he assumes office next week, he has made clear — both during his previous term and in the lead up to this one — that U.S. involvement in Syria will not continue forever. With the American presence in the northeast on a potential timetable, the outgoing and incoming administrations should focus on what elements can be influenced by American engagement to secure the interests of the United States and set the table for what is likely to be a rapid departure. Preventing a resurgence by the Islamic State remains the top priority, but in order to do so, the United States should pursue policies that ensure continuity of Islamic State detentions. For that to occur, the Kurdish forces in Syria need to be able to remain focused on safeguarding the prisons and displaced persons encampments, and can only do so through American-brokered cessation of hostilities agreements, as well as facilitating engagement of all parties to alleviate Turkish concerns and promote a unified Syria free from terrorist threats.
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