The Low Credibility of Predictions About Putin

Can anyone really say they know what Vladimir Putin is planning next? Karen Kwiatkowski says she has no idea, and that “You and I have the same credibility as our state media.” No one knows. She continues, writing in LewRockwell.com:

• The war in Ukraine will be completely televised, scripted, packaged, and presented for your consumption.
• While filmed in Ukraine, it is all about Germany, and more specifically, the American effort to  eliminate the already constructed and ready to flow Nordstream 2.
• Ukraine doesn’t matter to average Americans, but isn’t it frightening how little regard for Ukrainian lives that Biden has?  Did Ukrainians not pay their 10% to the Big Guy? Are they nothing more than expendable extras?
• Employees of NATO, the US CIA and State Department, and US businesses are all pulling out of Ukraine, by edict or because of the breathless news of yesterday’s today’s tomorrow’s invasion from the east.
• Members of Ukraine’s crony government and their beneficiaries are leaving the country in droves.
• Germany is getting a reminder of how subordinate the US government believes Germany is, as if 1945 were only yesterday.  Most Germans today just want to have some affordable clean energy and get back to global trade.  But that is not what the US leadership wants, so Germany be damned.
• The US Government is feverishly approving US arms sales to nearby NATO countries.

When you look at the facts above, while we don’t know what Putin is planning, it may not turn out that badly for him after all.

Ukrainian despots are leaving the country, while eastern territories gratefully looking for help from Russia proper.  NATO countries are wasting money on weapons that won’t be used, but will continue to drain their coffers for decades of US upgrades and maintenance.  US callous abandons their Ukrainian stooges, cultivated for decades by the likes of Biden, McCain, and the neocons. Germany, politically held together by a new coalition, is a Germany that just wants affordable energy and a little respect.  If anyone must tell Germany what they must suffer and what Germans must do, is it to be a strange little man across the Atlantic and his barking neocons?  Well, is it?

This movie is going to be a flop, and may not make it to the big screen at all. While it is being broadly promoted in the US and parts of Europe, it turns out that – just like the movie industry itself – what used to be a US-dominated creative enterprise has long outgrown the US.

Maybe it was inevitable.  When wars became theater, people would critique the actors, write bad reviews, not buy tickets, and pay attention to other things.