Israel’s June 2025 conflict with Iran highlighted both Tehran’s missile capabilities and the limits of the missile defense systems of both Israel and the United States. During the 12-day war, Israel faced waves of Iranian ballistic missiles, relying heavily on US THAAD interceptors to supplement its own systems. While the multi-layered Israeli defense achieved an estimated 86% success rate, at least 36 missiles hit populated areas, causing casualties and widespread damage. Intelligence suggests Iran has rebuilt much of its missile production and may continue large-scale deployments, while US interceptor stocks remain depleted, reports Stav Levaton of The Times of Israel. Experts warn that in a future confrontation, Israel may struggle to match previous defensive effectiveness, especially if Iran launches sustained salvos or employs improved air defenses, potentially prolonging and intensifying the conflict. The evolving threat also includes regional proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis. Levaton writes:

As reports pile up of intelligence pointing to renewed Iranian missile production since the June war with Israel, analysts increasingly believe that a fresh confrontation with Iran may be approaching.

But a new war may find Israel less equipped to defend itself against Tehran’s still-potent missile threat than it was in the 12-day round of fighting in the spring.

The June conflict exposed not just the scale of Iran’s missile threat, but the limits of the defenses arrayed against it.  […]

More recently, NBC reported that Israeli officials were concerned with Iran’s growing ballistic missile program, with one undisclosed source warning that, left unchecked, the country’s production could climb to as many as 3,000 missiles per year. […]

“It’s a very real concern,” said Ari Cicurel, associate director of foreign policy at the Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs (JINSA). “Both Israel and the US used an immense amount of their interceptor stockpiles… we are still very far behind in replenishing to get back to what we had before.” […]

The strain on US inventories has since forced Washington to accelerate efforts to rebuild its missile stockpiles. In recent months, the US launched the Munitions Acceleration Council, which the Defense Department said “has begun pursuing increased production,” reflecting growing concern that current production rates are ill-suited to modern, missile-heavy conflicts. […]

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