Bloomberg reports that China is rapidly expanding its drone warfare capabilities, posing a serious threat to American forces in a potential Pacific conflict. Its dominance in drone production and use of cheap, AI-powered systems could overwhelm US defenses. While the Pentagon is investing more in counter-drone efforts, experts warn it must act faster, prioritize affordable defenses, and bolster passive protections to remain effective in future wars. They write:

The Chinese military is racing to develop fearsome weapons that could help it prevail over the US in a Pacific war: hypersonic missiles, next-generation dogfighting” satellites. Yet one of its most dangerous capabilities may be among the cheapest: a rapidly growing arsenal of attack drones. Fielding better defenses against such threats needs to be a more urgent priority for the Pentagon.

The skies above Ukraine offer a nightly preview of what US forces in the region could face. Russia is firing off pulsed salvos of kamikaze drones, decoys, and cruise and ballistic missiles, aiming to disorient and deplete Ukrainian air defenses. On the front lines, small “first-person view” quadcopters filled with explosives have made it almost impossible for either side to mass forces or maneuver freely. […]

China is especially well placed to exploit these innovations in warfighting. It makes 70% of the world’s commercial drones and dominates production of crucial components, from batteries to motors to magnets. […]

The US will still need its own exquisite capabilities to take on a peer adversary like China — ­from nuclear submarines and constellations of satellites to its own drone arsenal. If it doesn’t start fielding more effective, affordable defenses, though, it may not even get in the fight.

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