CHINA THREAT: A Crucial Year Ahead for the Philippines

By Anak @Adobe Stock

Haroro J. Ingram of War on The Rocks reports that in the coming year, the Philippines’ internal challenges must be managed while holding course on a foreign policy path that promises to position the country as a more skilled navigator of the geostrategic currents surrounding it. Ingram writes:

Of all the flashpoints facing the Trump administration on Jan. 20, 2025, China’s campaign of intimidation and maritime occupation in the South China Sea may prove the most concerning for U.S. interests and preventing war in the Indo-Pacific. Beijing has spent decades occupying, building, and militarizing islands in those resource-rich waters through which trillions of dollars of trade pass annually. China’s incessant maritime incursions have ignored the sovereignty of its neighbors, violated international law, and given it strategic footholds for exercising political, economic, and military leverage. The aggressiveness of China’s expansionism has spiked in the last 18 months, with the Philippines as the focal point of its ire. Beijing’s timing is not coincidental. The Philippines, a mutual defense treaty ally of the United States, is entering a pivotal 12-month period in which a convergence of critical issues promises seismic implications for not only its national security, defense, and foreign policy trajectory but also its internal stability. As Beijing has pushed the region to the brink, it has dragged the Philippines to center stage.

For its part, the Philippines has adopted an assertive posture to manage China’s aggression as it prepares for a multigenerational campaign to protect regional peace. […]

The Philippines is a fulcrum of the U.S.-Chinese strategic competition in Asia. Based on its geography alone, the Philippines is arguably Southeast Asia’s most important country. Its southernmost island sits in a tri-border region with Indonesia and Malaysia, while its northernmost island is a mere 90 miles from Taiwan. The northern islands of Luzon are part of the First Island Chain, with the Second Island Chain marking the maritime boundary of the Philippine Sea’s eastern reaches. For 200 nautical miles off its west coast stretches the West Philippine Sea and, beyond that, the broader South China Sea. As then-President Trump has said of the Philippines: “It is a strategic location — the most strategic location. … The most prime piece of real estate from a military standpoint.” Yet, the story of the Philippines is one of unmet potential. Historically, the country has been dogged by political instability, economic mismanagement, and internal security threats. For too long, the Philippines has been a nation swept up by the geostrategic currents of its neighborhood rather than a shaper of them. That has started to change.

There is perhaps no better evidence of the Philippines’ rise on the global stage than the unprecedented trilateral summit between the United States, Japan, and the Philippines in April 2024. […]

It is difficult to decipher the goal of China’s hostilities toward the Philippines. Perhaps Beijing is testing the boundaries and fueling the conditions for war on Taiwan. In the short term, it’s more likely that Beijing has decided that the Philippines must serve as a deterrence to others from resisting its bullying. Whatever the answer, China is making the Indo-Pacific a more volatile region, and it has picked the Philippines as its primary target — at least for now. For all these unknowns, one thing is certain: China is not about to relieve its pressure on the Philippines. […]

The Philippines faces a year in which it will need to manage some extraordinary domestic challenges. The national government, working with its counterparts in the south, must get the Bangsamoro peace process over the finish line and the region through its first elections. Achieving that milestone will signal the transfer of the autonomous region’s destiny into the hands of its own democratically elected government. Simultaneous local and national polls will test the security sector, while the national results will reshape the configuration of the Philippine congress, set the scene for the 2028 presidential elections, and serve as a report card on the Marcos administration’s performance. All these internal challenges will need to be managed while holding course on a foreign policy path that promises to position the Philippines as a more skilled navigator of the geostrategic currents that surround it.

Supporting the Philippines through the headwinds of the next year will require the U.S. government to consider how it can help tip the balance toward peace and stability in the south. It is simple: If one cares about the Philippines being a stable and capable alliance partner, one must also care about the fortunes of the Bangsamoro region. Removing that internal drain on the Philippines security sector frees it to focus on defending its sovereignty and ensuring that the West Philippine Sea is not a flashpoint for regional conflict. For now, the mutual defense treaty with the United States is a powerful deterrent to war, but more needs to be done to ensure that China’s so-called grey zone activities are not allowed to slowly erode Philippine sovereignty and give Beijing critical footholds that further tip the strategic balance in its favor. Overall, the picture is clear: advancing U.S.-Philippines relations is not just in the best interests of Washington — it also will help to create the conditions for a more peaceful and stable region.

Read more here.