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Will Expats Decide the Election?

October 21, 2020 By David Franke

By Lightspring @ Shutterstock.com

Both sides have their favorite disaster scenarios for the upcoming election.  Let me add a new one.  It’s far-fetched, I know, but in this unusual day and age, who knows….

In a close election, American expatriates—citizens living abroad—could conceivably make the difference.  There are more of them than you might think, particularly in Canada but around the globe.

Here are excerpts from an article in Toronto’s DH News that explains the situation:

New data suggests that Toronto has one of the world’s largest populations of American citizens living outside of the United States, according to a report recently released by the US government.

The report by the Federal Voting Assistance Program (FVAP) estimates that Canada’s largest city is home to 78,371 eligible US voters….

Three other Canadian cities made the top 10 list of international cities: Vancouver tops the global list with 183,155, Montreal is fifth with 44,597, and Quebec City is seventh with 37,002.

Overall, 660,935 eligible US voters live in Canada, the most of any country besides the states, accounting for a quarter of the 2.56 million overseas Americans that are eligible to vote.

But Very Few Expats Actually Vote in U.S. Elections

However, actual voting rates in the 10 largest international hubs for eligible US voters are far lower than the rates that can be expected.

Toronto’s voting rate in 2014 was just 5%, a tiny fraction of the 58% that was expected. The voting rate in Vancouver was lower at 2%, sharply contrasting with the expected rate of 54%.

With a recorded voting rate of 11%, London had the highest actual voting rate of the 10 cities.

“Overseas citizens are in a different news environment in which news is less likely to be focused on the United States and there is less election-related advertising aimed at them,” the report continues….

With that said, a higher turnout can be expected for this year’s election given the record level of international interest in the candidates.

10 cities outside of the United States with the largest population of American overseas citizens

  1. Vancouver, Canada: 183,155
  2. Tel Aviv, Israel: 102,442
  3. Toronto, Canada: 78,371
  4. London, United Kingdom: 61,490
  5. Montreal, Canada: 44,597
  6. San Jose, Costa Rica: 44,191
  7. Quebec City, Canada: 37,002
  8. Tokyo, Japan: 34,302
  9. Hong Kong, China: 34,042
  10. Melbourne, Australia: 27,709

Global distribution of voting-age Americans

  1. Canada: 660,935
  2. United Kingdom: 306,600
  3. France: 156,899
  4. Israel: 133,850
  5. Japan: 110,933
  6. Australia: 103,395
  7. Germany: 89,528
  8. Costa Rica: 79,469
  9. Switzerland: 68,322
  10. Mexico: 64,852
  11. South Korea: 54,546

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  • Author
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David Franke
David Franke was one of the founders of the conservative movement in the late 1950s and early 1960s, starting his media career at Human Events and National Review (editorial assistant to William F. Buckley Jr.).His articles have appeared in the New York Times, Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, Esquire, and many other publications.His books have included Safe Places, The Torture Doctor, Richard C. Young’s Financial Armadillo Strategy (as co-author to Dick Young), and America’s Right Turn (with Richard A. Viguerie).He was Senior Editor of Silver & Gold Report in the 1980s, and served as the writer/editor of John Naisbitt’s Trend Letter in the 1990s.A native Texan, David now lives in Virginia’s beautiful Shenandoah Valley.
Latest posts by David Franke (see all)
  • Will Expats Decide the Election? - October 21, 2020
  • Good Satire is Hard to Find - October 20, 2020
  • My Fearless Election Prediction - October 19, 2020

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