Biden is in double-trouble: His lead falling, the race’s remaining variables are also daunting. CNN’s latest poll demonstrates the first, while a quick look at the shrinking calendar reveals the second. Increasingly, November appears to hinge on Biden’s public performance, which was the last thing Democrats wanted.
CNN’s August 17 poll (taken 8/12-15, of 1,108 registered voters, MOE +/- 4 percent) showed Biden’s lead over Trump plummeting to just 50 percent to 46 percent, well within the poll’s margin of error. This is down 10 percentage points from CNN’s June poll, which had Biden leading 55 percent to 41 percent
Even worse, in the 15 battleground states, which will determine November’s outcome, Biden’s lead was a scant 49 percent to 48.
When campaigns reach their most intense, candidate scrutiny does as well. Having endured a presidential race already, unmatched media scrutiny, and congressional investigation and even impeachment, there is unlikely much left unknown about the President. Not so Biden
Finally, there are the debates and candidates’ general campaign trail performance. Again, Trump is tested and known. He debated four years ago and survived these with Hillary Clinton — commonly accepted as a much tougher debater than Biden.
The race is closing, is likely closer than observers know, and is closest in the states that will count. With just over two months to go, the race has few remaining “unknowns,” but these do not favor Biden
J.T. Young served under President George W. Bush as the director of communications in the Office of Management and Budget and as deputy assistant secretary in legislative affairs for tax and budget at the Treasury Department.
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