In a new poll conducted by InsiderAdvantage for the Center for American Greatness, 400 likely voters in Pennsylvania showed Donald Trump leading in the state.
The poll was conducted on 25 October by both IVR and live cell phone interviews. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.9% and is weighted for age, race, gender, and political affiliation.
The Results from AG News Staff:
- Donald Trump: 48.4%
- Joe Biden: 45.5 %
- Jo Jorgensen: 3 %
- Undecided: 3 %
What happened? In the same poll, Joe Biden had been in the lead less than two weeks ago. Matt Towery (InsiderAdvantage) explains why the numbers have moved in Trump’s favor.
These results indicate a stark shift in the contest. Our last survey of Pennsylvania showed Joe Biden leading Trump by three points. But that survey was before the last debate. Since the debate Trump has picked up support from younger voters, who based on our prior survey strongly oppose future lockdowns over Covid-19 spikes.
Trump has also bolstered his lead among male voters by some twelve points. Biden continues to hold a seven point advantage over Trump among female voters. It would be nothing more than mere conjecture to attempt to correlate Biden’s statements on energy and fracking in the last debate contest with the shift towards Trump in this survey. However, Trump saw gains even among senior voters, which have not been his strong suit this election cycle. That suggests that some issue or set of events has caused a late shift in the contest.
Trump also continues to hold about 14% of the African American vote in this survey. In twenty years of polling, and as one who has polled Pennsylvania many times, I have never seen a Republican candidate consistently hold these type of numbers among black voters this close to an election. And this appears to be a developing trend in numerous states.