Condoleezza Rice: A New Day in the Middle East

By comando @Adobe Stock

In the WSJ, Condoleezza Rice discusses why time is on the side of the US and her Allies looking for a more stable region. As she notes, the “new day” is not without its clouds
Even though this limited war is likely to be inconclusive, the results will have achieved a far better Middle East.

The three-month military campaign degraded Iran’s ability to project power by significantly damaging its conventional forces, missile stockpiles, and proxies.

What was the impetus for drawing Israel and the Arab states closer?

Defense cooperation and intelligence sharing were key.

In this regard, Israel has never been more secure. Israel responded furiously to the terrorist attack of Oct. 7, 2023, and pummeled Iranian proxies, including Hezbollah and Hamas, that threatened its population. Securing international support for its continued efforts to deal with that threat remains a diplomatic hurdle for Jerusalem. But many Arab regimes no longer question Israel’s legitimacy; instead, they seek the benefits of technological and economic cooperation with Israel. Modernization is their strongest motivation.

Ms. Rice, earlier, you mentioned global implications. Can you list some for Journal readers?

• that the Iranian regime’s leaders were physically vulnerable to U.S. military power and allied intelligence

• that although Iran can close the Strait of Hormuz, that leverage is limited, as the U.S. blockade confronted Iran with the prospect of severe economic damage in return.

• that China is no friend of the Arab world, as Beijing watched from the sidelines as Iran attacked the economic infrastructure of the region.

By using its advanced defensive capabilities to support the war effort against Iran, Ukraine demonstrated that it is an asset to the U.S. and its allies.

Given the mounting strategic losses for Russia—Syria, Venezuela, possibly Cuba, and on the battlefield in Ukraine, this is the time to press the advantage on behalf of Kyiv.

Why isn’t fully enriched uranium today’s problem?

As Operation Midnight Hammer did last June, Operation Epic Fury set back Iranian nuclear ambitions significantly. It will be a long time before Iran can build a viable nuclear weapon.

Not Today’s Problem

Why do you feel that the large stockpiles of highly enriched uranium hidden somewhere in Iran are a problem for the future, not for today?

Rice: If the uranium is at 60% enrichment, a fairly short technical step away from weapons grade, taking that final step is virtually impossible today.

“To reach weapons-grade—93% or higher—the material must be spun in sensitive centrifuges that are subject to breakage. It is hard to imagine that Iran’s centrifuge cascades survived the intense bombing. The Iranian conversion facility, without which one can’t make a bomb, was destroyed. Its A-team of nuclear scientists has been eliminated.”

Why do you not want a single penny of frozen assets or sanctions relief to go to Tehran?

Rice: Iran used the money to rebuild its capabilities and those of its proxies. It would do so again.

The U.S. must maintain military readiness in the region and the will to attack again if the Iranians begin to rebuild their nuclear infrastructure or missile capabilities. We should publicly expose any Russian or Chinese efforts to help the regime rebuild these capabilities. Additionally, the lessons of the war should spur deeper defense—technological and intelligence cooperation with allies in the region, particularly concerning asymmetric warfare in the age of drones.

The International community, which has behaved shamefully. Our European allies stood by as the US dealt with growing Iranian capabilities and Iran attacked regional powers. Our allies need to reengage with us, and we with them.

The United Nations Security Council, between 2006 and 2010, passed five resolutions declaring Iran’s nuclear ambitions under Chapter VII an “action with respect to threats to the peace, breaches of the peace, and acts of aggression.”

The next time our European friends are inclined to say that conflict with Iran is “not our war,” they should reread those resolutions.

Rice would like to see both Israel and the US, by both overt and covert means, undermine the regime’s capacity to oppose the Iranian population. Rice feels we owe it to the Iranians.

Securing the world’s energy and transportation systems against the vulnerabilities revealed by the war is also a priority. Rice finds it puzzling that the Trump administration seemed caught off guard despite years of anticipation by military experts in planning exercises. The US can’t afford to be surprised again, warns Ms. Rice.

“No American president has had a better chance to build a different and more stable region. It may just take a little more time.”

Previous articleDiversification
Next articleHow Ukraine’s Mid-Range Drones Are Strangling Russian Supply Lines
Debbie Young
Debbie, our chief political writer at Richardcyoung.com, is also our chief domestic affairs writer, a contributing writer on Eastern Europe and Paris and Burgundy, France. She has been associate editor of Dick Young’s investment strategy reports for over five decades. Debbie lives in Key West, Florida, and Newport, Rhode Island, and travels extensively in Paris and Burgundy, France, cooking on her AGA Cooker, and practicing yoga. Debbie has completed the 200-hour Krama Yoga teacher training program taught by Master Instructor Ruslan Kleytman. Debbie is a strong supporting member of the NRA.