Survive and Thrive March 2025: “I Don’t Understand Bonds,” Says Everybody

By Worawith @ Adobe Stock

Dear Survivor,

“I don’t understand bonds,” says everybody. Which is a shame because bonds are a pretty nice asset to own right about now, as many of you do if you work with Your Survival Guy.

But here’s the deal. When investors hear what the T-Bill is yielding, their immediate reaction isn’t “let’s buy it.” Their reaction is let’s “beat it.” This isn’t a Michael Jackson song.

As an aside, my family loved MJ: The Musical, which we saw in London last spring before taking the Chunnel to Paris. On a sadder note, one of our favorite lunches there was at the Chiltern Firehouse. It burned down this February and is closed until further notice, and may not reopen.

Getting back to bonds. If you take away one thing from today’s post, it’s that you need money to do special trips. Not a ton of it, but enough. And one sure way to kiss those trips goodbye is to needlessly lose it. When investors reach for yield, they risk their principal.

“Oh, but what about inflation, Survival Guy?” you wonder.

What about it? When you have enough money, you can still afford to buy a dozen eggs. I can’t tell you how many times I hear how tens of thousands of dollars were lost because Mr. Greedy bought something for another half of a percentage point in yield. That’s a lot of eggs.

Investing is emotional. Spending money is too.

“I’m Good at Buying Stocks, But Bad at Selling”

Survive and Thrive this month.

Warm regards,

“Your Survival Guy”

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P.S. Your Survival Guy just finished reading The Lions of Winter by Ty Gagne, the true story of two young climbers who lost their way in extreme weather on Mt. Washington in January of 1982. The 4-days that followed changed the future of New Hampshire search and rescue.

Having personally skied Mt. Washington’s Tuckerman’s Ravine a handful of times, I can tell you how quickly things can change at the home of the “worst weather in the world.”  And I was there in the spring, not early winter like these two.

Reflecting on this harrowing rescue attempt and thinking about how fast things change in my line of work, this is a lesson in margin of safety, preparedness, and how bad stuff happens. For as long as humans are humans, risks will be taken, and there will be consequences.

More access to the great outdoors and investing is changing every day. What doesn’t change is human nature. There will always be speculators. There will always be risk takers who create danger, even for those who aren’t lost in the wilderness.

P.P.S. You have learned a lot from me about the dangers of heading up the mountain without a solid plan, and a refusal to turn around even when it’s obviously too dangerous to climb. The Lions of Winter isn’t just a warning to mountain climbers or backcountry skiers, it’s a warning to anyone attempting something dangerous without a backup plan.

A danger many Americans take on without giving so much as a thought to the risks involved is taking on mountains of debt. Credit card debt, student loans, auto loans, mortgages, financed furniture, second mortgages, and home equity loans, and the list goes on. People bury themselves deep in debt, sometimes with no real plan to escape. Take a look at my chart of American credit card balances below. The total is nearing $1 trillion after rocketing upward through the Covid recovery and high inflation of the Biden era.

Mortgages aren’t any better. Outstanding liabilities for one-to-four family residential mortgages have grown to $13.3 trillion, also a record high.

Now, debt can be outgrown. As the economy grows, debt tends to grow, but it shouldn’t be ignored either. Like a storm on the mountainside, you shouldn’t climb into it; you should find a way around it or head back to basecamp and try again when the weather is better.

Don’t climb a mountain of debt. Your Survival Guy likes you to be debt free when possible. Debt has its uses, but be sure you have an escape plan that makes sense. When you want to talk about your escape plan, email me at ejsmith@yoursurvivalguy.com. In the meantime, click here to subscribe to my free monthly Survive & Thrive letter.

P.P.P.S. If the Ukraine war has taught the world anything, it’s that the future of warfare, at least its near future, is drones. Americans got their first taste of drone warfare in the Global War on Terrorism when drones like the MQ-9 Reaper and the RQ-4 Globalhawk filled the skies. These drones were built like airplanes, fast with a long-range, but in need of landing strips.

Those types of drones have been used in the war in Ukraine as well, most famously those built by the Turkish company Baykar, which were used very successfully at the beginning of the war. But now, the Ukrainian and Russian armed forces are relying more heavily on smaller quadcopter-style drones for surveillance and attacks. These drones can take off from just about anywhere and land just about anywhere, but they’re not that fast compared to the larger airplane-style drones.

Now, Sikorsky, the famed helicopter company owned by Lockheed Martin, has attempted to build a drone that is the best of both worlds. The new uncrewed aerial system, known as a rotor blown wing, operates in both helicopter and airplane modes. It combines vertical takeoffs and landings, with the speed advantages of an airplane. Lockheed Martin reports:

STRATFORD, Conn, March 10, 2025 – Sikorsky, a Lockheed Martin company (NYSE: LMT) has successfully validated the advanced control laws to successfully fly a ‘rotor blown wing’ uncrewed aerial system (UAS) in both helicopter and airplane modes. Powered by batteries, the 115 pounds (52kg) twin prop-rotor prototype has demonstrated operational stability and maneuverability across all flight regimes, and the potential to scale the unique vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) design to larger sizes requiring hybrid-electric propulsion.

“Combining helicopter and airplane flight characteristics onto a flying wing reflects Sikorsky’s drive to innovate next-generation VTOL UAS aircraft that can fly faster and farther than traditional helicopters,” said Sikorsky Vice President and General Manager Rich Benton. “Our rotor blown wing platform is a prime example how we are leveraging the breadth of our 102-year aviation heritage to develop new designs that meet the emerging missions of commercial and military operators.”

Here’s how the system looks while flying in airplane mode.

Sikorsky Rotor Blown Wing UAS. Photo courtesy of Lockheed Martin, Inc.

Watch the UAS in action:

Originally posted on Your Survival Guy.

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