Richardcyoung.com

The Online Home of Author and Investor, Dick Young

The Fed has Sat on Its Hands

By

In the November issue of Richard C. Young’s Intelligence Report, Dick Young writes:

The Fed has sat on its hands throughout the duration of the current business cycle recovery from the financial crisis. In my five decades in the investment industry, there has not been a period where the Fed has refused to increase rates during an extended economic rebound. As I have been writing, we are now in the winter stage of the economic cycle. Gauges of employment momentum indicate that the cyclical upturn now has nowhere to go but down. Yet the Fed and the White House Council of Economic Advisors appear to be taken aback by September’s monthly rotten jobs report–the second in a row. Look, in any cyclical business recovery, manufacturing average weekly hours improves only to a level a little above 42 hours. I have been staring at these numbers for a long time. Since I first started tracking the data in 1971 at the institutional research and trading firm of Model, Roland & Co. in Boston, this has been the record. And the same can be said about data pertaining to weekly initial unemployment claims. The upside limit for any cyclical business advance most often flashes when initial weekly claims fall decisively below the 300,000 level. In my four and a half decades of analyzing this data, only once during the period (early 70s) have claims readings fallen this low.

An Embarrassed White House?

Are we to believe that the Obama administration and its cousin the Fed have been caught off guard? You sure hope that’s not the embarrassing case. But why was Fed Chair Janet Yellen jawboning about a Fed Funds rate increase in September? You tell me. The truth is, the Fed Funds rate should have been nudged up gradually to a more normalized 4% years ago. But nope, no Fed action. Now, with two consecutive months of microscopic 0.1% increases in nonfarm payrolls, along with plunging industrial commodity prices and sinking production momentum (see charts below), palms must be a little sweaty at the White House and at the Fed. And the Fed has zero leeway today to cut interest rates to stave off any impending business downturn. The monetary quiver is, if you will, arrowless!

chart3

chart4

chart5

Here you can see the Fed Funds target rate since 1971. Look at the unprecedented low rates the Fed has maintained since 2009.

fed funds rate

The following two tabs change content below.

E.J. Smith - Your Survival Guy

Preparing your investments and family for when disaster strikes.
E.J. Smith is the Founder of YourSurvivalGuy.com, Managing Director at Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd., a Managing Editor of Richardcyoung.com, and Editor-in-Chief of Youngresearch.com. E.J. graduated from Babson College in Wellesley, Massachusetts, with a B.S. in finance and investments. In 1995, E.J. began his investment career at Fidelity Investments in Boston before joining Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd. in 1998. E.J. has trained at Sig Sauer Academy in Epping, NH, where he completed course-work in Practical and Defensive Handgun, Conceal Carry Pistol, Shotguns, Precision Scope Rifle and Kidnapping Prevention. E.J. plays a Yamaha Recording Custom drum set with Zilldjian cymbals. His first drum set was a 5-piece Slingerland with Zilldjians. He grew-up worshiping Neil Peart of the band Rush, and loves the song Tom Sawyer—the name of his family’s boat, a Grady-White Canyon 306. He grew up in Mattapoisett, MA, an idyllic small town on the water near Cape Cod. He spends time in Newport, RI and Bartlett, NH—both as far away from Wall Street as one could mentally get. The Newport office is on a quiet, tree lined street not far from the harbor and the log cabin in Bartlett, NH, the “Live Free or Die” state, sits on the edge of the White Mountain National Forest. He enjoys spending time in Key West and Paris. Please get in touch with E.J. at ejsmith@youngresearch.com. Sign up here to receive all the best content from Richardcyoung.com each week.