In the WSJ, Holman Jenkins discusses what’s wrong with green energy’s approach that “consists of throwing money at green business interests in defiance of any practical consideration. If you think something else is going on, such as abating climate change, think again,” he warns.
The Great Unmentionable: 3rd World Reliability
Looking at New York’s legislated goal of emissions-free electricity by 2040, Mr. Jenkins continues.
To meet (its) goal of emissions-free electricity, New York will need up to 45 gigawatts of what it delicately calls DEFRs, or dispatchable emissions-free resources.
Not only is that more than the state’s total current generating capacity of 37 gigawatts, these DEFRs, which are carbon-free like wind and solar yet not interruptible like wind and solar, don’t exist and have no prospect of existing in the next decade.
Starting very much sooner than 2040, New York’s real choice will be Third World electricity reliability vs. paying fossil-fuel operators large fees to keep their plants up and running in a highly inefficient part-time fashion.
Will purging the last 10% or 5% of fossil fuels from the system make it worth the exorbitant cost?
Don’t expect anyone to admit the bigger problem: The transition won’t likely do much to reduce global emissions.
This is the great unmentionable. When New Yorkers use less coal, oil or gasoline because of environmental mandates, the market price transmits the benefit to other global users, who then use more. Even more unspeakable is the corollary: Emission-spewing activities simply relocate from one part of the world to another. China’s emissions growth, from half the U.S.’s to almost 300% of the U.S.’s in 30 years, is partly the product of a transplant of emissions from the U.S. and Europe.
The Year of Thinking Magically
Biden officials (source unknown) revert to “gobbledygook” about carbon taxes that appear immaculately without anyone having to advocate them. Then the media to step up to fill the gap with “wishful thinking” and Soviet econometrics, confusing inputs with outputs.
Yes, world-wide investment in renewables in the past two years has exceeded investment in fossil fuels.
Supposedly this proves fossil fuels are on their way out? No, counters Mr. Jenkins. It proves fossil fuels are a better deal, consuming less investment to meet their share of the world’s growing power needs.
From the Biden administration’s own studies on energy output:
- solar delivers 25%
- wind delivers 35%
- natural gas 57%.
- coal delivered 67% (as recently as 2010) but has fallen precipitously to 40%.
New England to Morph into the New Europe?
As gas supplies tighten, will New England experience blackouts? Grid officials warn of strains as the region competes with European countries for shipment of liquid natural gas they need to produce electricity. As Mr. Jenkins explains:
According to the National Energy Technology Laboratory, America’s coal plants increasingly are operated in inefficient, stop-start fashion to support wind and solar, magnifying the national risk of breakdowns and blackouts…
In Europe everything is worse. Europeans have pretended that generous wind and solar handouts made them green, while relying on cheap Russian gas to slow the transfer of heavy industry to China.
No Small Ironies
Profit-oriented energy providers already have an incentive to incorporate low-cost solar and wind in ways that meet customer demand for cheap, reliable energy.
It’s the pie-in-the-sky mandates concocted by legislators that drive utilities to adopt renewables in senseless ways unless the goal is to make every homeowner buy a carbon-spewing emergency generator.
This year (2020) has been a year loaded with hard lessons, the Spectator reminds readers.
- Spiraling inflation has given households an expensive economic refresher course.
- A land war in Europe has offered an unwelcome reminder of old geopolitical and military truths.
- Arguably the most important lesson of 2022 concerns the point at which these economic, military and geopolitical considerations converge: energy.