You get the last 25-years of first-round picks and their bust rates courtesy of NFL analyst Brad Gagnon. This isn’t the final word on your team’s first-round pick(s) by any means. But it does provide the risk of drafting certain positions over the last 25-years. As you can see RBs and QBs top the list. We’ll find out the truth for this year’s class soon enough.
Bust rates among first-round picks, 25-year sample:
Source: Pro-Football-Reference.com
First round results:
1 | Buccaneers | Jameis Winston | QB |
2 | Titans | Marcus Mariota | QB |
3 | Jaguars | Dante Fowler, Jr. | OLB |
4 | Raiders | Amari Cooper | WR |
5 | Redskins | Brandon Scherff | OG |
6 | Jets | Leonard Williams | DE |
7 | Bears | Kevin White | WR |
8 | Falcons | Vic Beasley | OLB |
9 | Giants | Ereck Flowers | OG |
10 | Rams | Todd Gurley | RB |
11 | Vikings | Trae Waynes | CB |
12 | Browns | Danny Shelton | NT |
13 | Saints | Andrus Peat | OT |
14 | Dolphins | DeVante Parker | WR |
15 | Chargers | Melvin Gordon | RB |
16 | Texans | Kevin Johnson | CB |
17 | 49ers | Arik Armstead | DT |
18 | Chiefs | Marcus Peters | CB |
19 | Browns | Cameron Erving | C |
20 | Eagles | Nelson Agholor | WR |
21 | Bengals | Cedric Ogbuehi | OT |
22 | Steelers | Bud Dupree | OLB |
23 | Broncos | Shane Ray | DE |
24 | Cardinals | D.J. Humphries | OT |
25 | Panthers | Shaq Thompson | OLB |
26 | Ravens | Breshad Perriman | WR |
27 | Cowboys | Byron Jones | CB |
28 | Lions | Laken Tomlinson | OG |
29 | Colts | Phillip Dorsett | WR |
30 | Packers | Damarious Randall | FS |
31 | Saints | Stephone Anthony | ILB |
32 | Patriots | Malcom Brown | DT |