Richardcyoung.com

The Online Home of Author and Investor, Dick Young

  • Breaking News
    • Dick Young’s Research Key: Anecdotal Evidence Gathering
    • You’ve Read The Last Issue of Intelligence Report, Now What?
    • The Final Richard C. Young’s Intelligence Report
  • Home
  • The American Conservative
  • The Swiss Way
  • Investing
  • Cato Institute
  • Dick Young
  • Debbie Young
  • Why We’re Different
  • About Us
    • Contributors
    • Why We’re Different
  • Key West
  • Paris
  • Liberty & Freedom Map
  • Weapons Systems
  • Your Survival Guy
  • Your Health
  • Justin Logan

Lipitor—Junk Science Math

March 9, 2018 By Richard C. Young

By roger ashford @ Shutterstock.com

Originally posted July 7, 2015.

Shane Ellison, M.Sc., “The Peoples Chemist,” explains in an email (copied below) the difference between relative and absolute risk. As Shane writes, “Statistical contortionism is the art of converting healthy people into patients by using numbers to exaggerate drug benefits. Lipitor is a prime example.”

The message is simple. Never pay any attention to relative risk. You know, the sort of wording that tells you to lower your risk of heart attack by X percent. Instead you want to know the absolute number. You want to know from a specific study the number of patients that benefited as a percent of the total number in any test.

In Shane’s example the worthless and promoted relative number is 36%, while the vital absolute number is a tiny 1%.

When you are considering the value of any specific drug and drug study, ask your doctor to provide you with the number needed to treat (NNT). This will allow you to find out exactly how many patients must be given a specific drug to prevent a specific negative event (heart attack, etc.). By example, the NNT involved in prescribing aspirin to get rid of a headache is 1, meaning that every person given an aspirin to moderate a headache can expect to benefit. I see statin drug studies where the NNT is 100 or even 200 and higher. Here is a post I put up previously on the arithmetic of statin drugs. My original reference source was Business Week.

Shane writes:

Statistical contortionism is the art of converting healthy people into patients by using numbers to exaggerate drug benefits.  Lipitor is a prime example.  Drug companies and physicians use “relative risk reduction” while ignoring the “absolute risk reduction” in order to promote Lipitor use to a wider audience. This practice of statistical contortionism is akin to hiding evidence because it exaggerates benefits.  See for yourself.

Lipitor promoters insist that those with so-called high cholesterol can achieve a 36% “relative risk reduction” in heart attack by using the cholesterol-lowering drug.  The contortionists ignore that the same raw data can yield a more revealing “absolute risk reduction” of a paltry 1%.  Using absolute risk reduction is more accurate because it compares the actual difference between the treated and untreated groups.  Unfortunately, it is not good for increasing sales.

That Lipitor does not prevent heart attack is a death-blow to promoters.  It goes virtually unnoticed because they push the absolute risk reduction under the drug-rug while magnifying relative risk reduction.  This type of advertising disguised as science is the most dangerous trend in journalism today.  It promotes drug use among healthy populations who are needlessly putting themselves at risk for adverse effects of Lipitor like cancer and heart failure.

 

 

The following two tabs change content below.
  • Bio
  • Latest Posts

Richard C. Young

Richard C. Young is the editor of Young's World Money Forecast, and a contributing editor to both Richardcyoung.com and Youngresearch.com.

Latest posts by Richard C. Young (see all)

  • The Paris Palace Hotels: Part IV - April 26, 2018
  • Rand Paul Disappointing on Pompeo Confirmation Reversal - April 25, 2018
  • Remembering the Traveling Wilburys – Inside Out - April 25, 2018

Related Posts

Our Most Popular Posts

  • Everyone Has Stopped Talking about Bolton. Now It Gets Dangerous.
  • Senate Must Not Confirm Anti-Iran-Deal Pompeo
  • Your Retirement: The Van Life
  • How Barbara Bush Brought Down the House at Wellesley College
  • Survival States: The Best States for Survivalists
  • Trump Could “Astonish the World”
  • One Standard for the Public, Another for the FBI?
  • The Poetic Outing of Sean Hannity Politically Motivated
  • Chris Preble: Empower Mature, Like-Minded States
  • Syria’s Four Fronts and a Perfect Storm of Chaos

RSS Youngresearch.com

  • Your Retirement Life: Cost of Living Higher in These States Part I
  • Bonds Break Through 3%
  • Electric Buses: ‘Everyone Has One’
  • The Rise of the Robot Bond Trader?
  • Your Retirement Life: Enjoy Monet like a Rockefeller
  • Billionaire Says Amazon Won’t Enter Drug Business
  • Is Solar and Storage Competitive with Gas Peakers in Minnesota?
  • Is a 30% Correction Coming for US Stocks?
  • $50 Lobster Roll?
  • Can Mnuchin Hammer Out a China Trade Deal?
The Paris Palace Hotels: Part IV

The Paris Palace Hotels: Part IV

Island Creek Oyster Bar, Boston, MA

Island Creek Oyster Bar, Boston, MA

Rand Paul Disappointing on Pompeo Confirmation Reversal

Rand Paul Disappointing on Pompeo Confirmation Reversal

Elizabeth Warren, a Faux Indian, Challenged by a Real Indian

Elizabeth Warren, a Faux Indian, Challenged by a Real Indian

Your Retirement Life: Cost of Living Higher in These States Part I

Your Retirement Life: Cost of Living Higher in These States Part I

U.S. Navy’s Zumwalt-Class Destroyers Have a New Role

U.S. Navy’s Zumwalt-Class Destroyers Have a New Role

Copyright © 2018 | Terms & Conditions | About Us | Dick Young | Archives