In 1904, geographer Sir Halford Mackinder proposed that control of the Eurasian heartland would determine global power, according to Frank A. Rose of DefenseNews. His theory shaped 20th-century geopolitics, but in the 21st century, technology, rather than geography, is the new strategic pivot. Innovations in AI, quantum computing, semiconductors, biotechnology, and space are now central to global competition, especially between the US and China. To remain a global leader, the US must reinvest in scientific research, strengthen public-private partnerships, safeguard supply chains, and shape global technological norms. The future of power lies not in territory but in who leads in technology and innovation. He writes:
In 1904, the British geographer and strategist Sir Halford Mackinder delivered a paper to the Royal Geographical Society in London titled, “The Geographic Pivot of History.” In it, he argued that control over the Eurasian heartland—what he called the “pivot area”—would determine the future of world power. His theory became foundational to modern geopolitical thought, influencing everything from British imperial strategy to Cold War containment doctrine.
Mackinder’s central premise was simple but profound: geography shapes destiny. Railroads, industrialization, and continental-scale military logistics were transforming the old maritime balance of power, and Mackinder believed that the vast landmass of Eurasia—with its resources, manpower, and central position—would become the key to global dominance.
More than a century later, the world looks radically different. Great power competition is no longer solely a contest over territory or physical access to critical chokepoints. Today, while geography still matters and will continue to shape strategic realities, technology is playing an increasingly central role in defining geopolitical competition in the 21st century. […]
Consider artificial intelligence. AI is already transforming warfare, intelligence collection, logistics, and decision-making. The country that best harnesses AI will be able to dominate in everything from autonomous systems and electronic warfare to cyber defense and space operations. As Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated, “whoever dominates the development of AI, will rule the world.” […]
This is why I believe we must update Mackinder’s thesis for the modern era. Instead of just asking who controls the Eurasian heartland, we must also ask: who controls the semiconductor supply chain? Who leads in quantum research? Who sets the global standards for AI ethics and cybersecurity? These are the questions that will determine global power in the coming decades. […]
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