Russia has captured 105 square miles in Ukraine, nearing the key city of Kostiantynivka, according to War on the Rocks newsletter, The Adversarial. In response, President Trump set an August 8 ceasefire deadline, imposed tariffs on India over Russian oil imports, and hinted at more. Despite tensions, Trump remains optimistic after U.S. envoy talks with Putin. Russia, confident of victory, may pause airstrikes to ease sanctions while continuing ground attacks. They write:

Over the last two weeks, Russia captured 105 square miles of Ukrainian territory, reportedly entering Pokrovsk and taking most of Chasiv Yar in Donetsk. Chasiv Yar’s fall would bring Moscow closer to encircling Kostiantynivka, a key Ukrainian stronghold. […]

The Kremlin remains dismissive of the potential sanctions and confident in a military victory, with the Russian General Staff reportedly telling Putin that Ukraine’s front lines could collapse within two to three months. Moscow is also reportedly considering a pause in drone and missile strikes — while continuing ground operations — to reduce sanctions pressure and attempt to halt Ukraine’s attacks on refineries.