The consequences of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz for Ukraine include rising gasoline prices and falling popularity for President Donald Trump. Add to that the chances of the GOP in November.
Ironies Abound
The price hike is the result of the “piratical closure of the Strait of Hormuz,” writes Matthew Continetti in the WSJ. The irony here is that voter backlash to the supply shock benefits the Democrats – the party that believes high prices for oil and gas are necessary to achieve the fabled “green energy transition.” It’s also the party that restricted fossil fuel use, leaving the United States vulnerable to hostile powers.
Gas is up 50% since Operation Epic Fury began. It has reached $4.55 per gallon. There is an inverse relationship between gas prices and presidential job approval, and President Trump is no exception.
Since hostilities commenced, Mr. Trump’s approval rating has dropped to 40.5% from 43.5% in the RealClearPolitics polling average.
In the congressional generic ballot, Democrats have widened their lead.
Polymarket puts (Dems) chances of winning the House at 84% and Senate at 49%.
The GOP has 6 months to turn around the electorate’s negative assessment of Trump and his party, continues Mr. Continetti. Failing to accomplish that turnaround, it would need to convince the public that Democratic candidates are unacceptable alternatives to GOP rule.
Republicans can’t predict or prevent global price shocks. But they can remind voters which party has spent decades making us vulnerable to them.
