As Russia’s war drags on and its economy worsens, elite factions compete to protect wealth and avoid blame. Putin rewards loyalty and punishes disloyalty amid rising fear and arrests, according to Kirill Shamiev of Foreign Policy. Some benefit from war profits, while others face mysterious deaths. The US seeks to deepen elite divisions by maintaining sanctions and encouraging defections, hoping to pressure Russia toward a negotiated peace. Shamiev writes:

As Russia’s economic situation worsens and Ukrainian defenses continue to hold, elite factions in Moscow are maneuvering for position in an uncertain future. Their goal is twofold: to protect the profits and privileges gained during the war, and to deflect blame for its mounting human and financial costs.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is concerned that the elite’s disunity and anxiety about the country’s future could undermine the cohesion of the Russian regime. To counteract this trend, the Kremlin has introduced unprecedented legal mechanisms for redistributing wealth under the banner of national security: from those suspected of even minimal disloyalty or Western ties, to individuals who may be less competent but demonstrably supportive of Putin. […]

Putin sought to make Ukraine the crown jewel of his decades-long rule by launching a full-scale invasion in 2022. But now, the system must protect him from the consequences of his actions. […]

The United States should also signal that, however the war ends, it will continue to sanction its architects while offering amnesty to elites who quietly distanced themselves from the war effort. […]

This approach would not cause mass defection by elites. But it would strengthen the incentives for lower-level government officials and business managers to hedge their positions and quietly disengage from a war that they increasingly see as unwinnable.

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