Electrified Heavy-Duty Trucks Hit the Green Energy Wall

Francis Menton has a little quiz for readers of the Manhattan Contrarian. Which will be the first state or country to hit the Renewable Energy Wall? The energy wall is a situation where (1) ”the electricity system stops functioning, or (2) the price goes through the roof,” or (3)“some other aspects of impossibility become so unavoidable that the zero carbon fantasy must be abandoned.”

Mr. Menton, can you give us examples of ways in which the wall might start to manifest itself?

1. cancellation of offshore wind energy developments
2. abandonment of large investments in producing so-called “green hydrogen.”

The wall’s crumbling has been evident to skeptics for some time. Regulatory mandates, however, were set far enough into the future that there has been no general immediate alarm.

But now, five and more years on, that is starting to change. The first of the impossible mandates are suddenly looming. Along with that, President Trump’s arrival on the scene has been a huge negative for the green energy crowd.

For today, Mr. Menton focuses on a subject that has much more to do with reality than with any White House policy: fully electrified heavy-duty trucks. Mr. Menton lives in the heart of NYC, where state and city governments have “gone nuts adopting” one after another green energy mandate that is impossible and will never happen.”

For the most part, the impossible mandates begin to kick in in 2030. So, no Wall yet. That, however, was before Governor Hochul adopted a regulation requiring a certain percentage of heavy-duty trucks sold in New York to be “zero emissions” (i.e., all-electric).

It so happens that New York copied this Rule and its percentages from California. For the 2025 model year, now under way, the relevant percentage is 7%.

All electric heavy-duty trucks? Mr. Menton wonders if “anyone? anyone?” has thought this one through. “Clearly not,” allows Mr. Menton.

… two upstate legislators of the Democratic Party have now introduced legislation to postpone the electric heavy-duty truck mandate until 2027. The mandate is “nearly impossible for the trucking industry to comply with.”

Here is one among several noted problems: An average diesel truck can be refilled in about 10 mins then driven for about 2,000 miles.

By comparison an electric, zero-emission heavy-duty truck takes approximately 10 hours to charge and can run for about 500 miles. . . . “Battery charging times are . . . a challenge and will remain so until new technology emerges and is commercialized.

The legislators noted that an average diesel truck can be refilled in about 10 minutes and can drive for about 2,000 miles. By comparison, an electric, zero-emission heavy-duty truck takes approximately 10 hours to charge and can run for about 500 miles. . . . “Battery charging times are . . . a challenge and will remain so until new technology emerges and is commercialized.” 

Is anyone out there? Bueller, who really thinks the battery issue is going to be solved within a couple of years?

People have only been working on batteries that are suitable for this purpose for about 100 years or so. Other issues noted by the legislators include “lack of charging infrastructure” and “cost.”

On the cost front, the Post reports that the price of a fully electric heavy-duty truck can be as much as triple that of a diesel competitor with comparable load capacity.

Here’s an exit quote from these legislators: “As we transition to a clean energy future, there is no point in putting an entire industry at risk in the process.”

The NY Post reports that environmental groups oppose the proposed rule delay. Who are these environmental groups?  The Alliance for Clean Energy, New York, Environmental Advocates of NY, Earthjustice, Environmental Defense Fund, New Yorkers for Clean Power, Sierra Club, Tri-State Transportation Campaign and Union of Concerned Scientists.

Protests response: 

“Delaying implementation is not only a foolish response to a false crisis whipped up by manufacturers, who are looking to rig the market in their favor, but it will lead to more ER visits, people suffering from asthma, and increased health costs, particularly for communities of color and low-income,” said a memo co-signed by the New York City Environmental Justice Alliance. “Our organizations urge the governor and the legislature to stand up for vulnerable communities and reject this legislation, and any effort like it.”

By claiming to speak for “vulnerable communities,” the environmental gropes think they will get their way. Mr. Menton, as far as he can determine, points out that greenhouse gas emissions have almost nothing to do with rates of asthma or other health issues. Francis Menton, who lives in the middle of Manhattan, where hundreds of diesel trucks pass each day., has no worse health than those living anywhere else near or far from him.

Meanwhile, don’t “vulnerable” communities, or at least low-income ones, have an interest in not having the cost of delivering their groceries and other goods increased by a multiple by an all-electric truck requirement?

So far, here at the consumer level, the impact of the electric truck mandate has not been noticeable. The mandate only applies to manufacturers’ sales, not to the actual fleets of the truck operators. The manufacturers seem to have figured out some workaround for themselves that is working at least for the moment. (Maybe they are making a few electric trucks that may or may not work and selling them to themselves or friends for a dollar.). But that won’t help for long. The 7% goes to 10% next year, 15% in 2027, 20% in 2028, 25% in 2029, and on up from there.

California apparently has tried to apply its percentage mandates to the fleets of the truck operators, rather than just to the sales of the manufacturers. That has been nixed by the incoming Trump administration.

About 10 states have adopted the California rules on fully electric heavy-duty trucks. Mr. Menton thinks New York is one of the first states to show signs of blinking.

Without the miraculous arrival of some new technology within the next year or two, there is no way that this can go on much longer. The likelihood of the miraculous new technology is about zero.