A Ukrainian drone strike on a key offshore oil-loading facility near Russia’s Novorossiysk port has disrupted flows through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium — the route that carries 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports, according to Ray Furlong and Azattyq Asia of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. With two of three Single Point Moorings now offline, Kazakhstan faces a major export bottleneck and rising diplomatic tensions after accusing Ukraine of attacking civilian infrastructure. The outage threatens Europe as well, since Kazakh crude is a significant source of gasoline-friendly “light, sweet” oil. Repairs could take until late 2026, and alternative export routes are either too small or too costly, leaving Kazakhstan exposed to both renewed strikes and its heavy reliance on a single pipeline through Russia. They write:

A drone strike on an oil-loading facility off Russia’s Black Sea coast has ignited a diplomatic spat between Ukraine and Kazakhstan, exposed the Central Asian country’s reliance on a single oil pipeline for exports, and possibly endangered gasoline supplies in Europe.

Naval drones hit a large floating circular structure 5 kilometers out to sea near the port of Novorossiysk, where Russia’s Black Sea fleet is based, on November 28.

The object was a Single Point Mooring (SPM), an offshore facility for pumping oil onto tankers. There are three SPMs at Novorossiysk. One was already undergoing maintenance. The hit appears to have had a devastating impact on the port’s capacity for loading oil. […]

This is bad for Russia, which loads oil from its north Caucasus oilfields through the site. But it’s much worse for Kazakhstan, which exports 80 percent of its oil through a single pipeline to Novorossiysk. […]

“Two new SPMs nearing completion in Dubai cannot be installed quickly; delivery, installation, and commissioning will take several months. Given the latest disruptions, the full three SPMs will not be operational before summer-autumn 2026,” said Paddack.

“A modern SPM comparable to CPC’s units costs $80-120 million, making replacement and unplanned infrastructure work a significant financial burden,” he added.

Additionally, even when everything is repaired and replaced, Ukraine could try to hit it again. But Kazakh reliance on European markets is only half the picture. The relationship is a two-way street. […]

“Kazakhstan is the third-largest partner for the European Union in terms of petroleum oils after the US and Norway. About one in nine imports, or barrels of imports, of petroleum oils originate from Kazakhstan,” he said. […]

Read more here.