In September, NATO forces intercepted 19 Russian drones that entered Polish airspace from Ukraine and Belarus, marking the first direct engagement between NATO and Russia since the invasion of Ukraine. Additional airspace violations followed in Romania, Estonia, and Denmark. While Russia claims the incidents were unintentional, many analysts see them as deliberate probes of NATO’s readiness and political unity. The drones used were unarmed decoys, suggesting Russia aimed to test NATO defenses at minimal cost. NATO launched Operation Eastern Sentry in response, deploying air and counter-drone assets, but experts argue that stronger support for Ukrainian air defenses is essential to preventing future escalations and safeguarding NATO territory. They write:
The obvious question is why Russian drones and aircraft have suddenly begun flying into NATO airspace. The Kremlin has been coy, simply announcing that it was not intending to attack targets in Poland. Russia’s ally Belarus said the drones had been thrown off course by jamming and the incursion was unintentional, asserting credit for informing Poland of the incursion in advance and even claiming to have shot down some of them. […]
Poland’s foreign minister is likely to be correct: This was not a mistake; it was a deliberate probe of NATO’s political resolve and military capabilities. Single Russian drones have flown into and fallen on NATO countries before, usually after being jammed or shot at by Ukrainian air defenses. But 19 drones penetrating Polish airspace for seven hours is unlikely to be accidental. Adding further credence to this being a deliberate probe is that all drones recovered were of a single type: the Gerbera, an unarmed Russian variant of the Iranian Shahed, usually used as a decoy. […]
Patriot batteries are not the main limitation — interceptor missiles for them are. So the United States may have to scale up its production of these, and fast. And air defense missile systems like Patriot are not the only capability NATO and Ukraine would have to employ to create an effective layered air defense network. As noted earlier, electronic warfare systems, kinetic systems, and interceptor drones are also required. And NATO may have to provide some of these as well. But Ukraine has developed impressive capabilities in all these areas, and its defense industry could produce more with additional funding from the West. […]
In the two plus years that Patriots have been operating in Ukraine, none have been permanently knocked out of action by Russian missiles or drones. A far greater risk is that Russian missiles or drones will fall on undefended civilian targets inside a NATO country because NATO allowed itself to be deterred from defending its territory by Russian threats. That, and not NATO air defense systems operating inside Ukraine, is the event that could cause a military escalation between NATO and Russia or a fracturing of the Atlantic alliance.
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